46 ITM using daily pivot points and fibonacci retracements

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Contents

4/6 ITM using daily pivot points and fibonacci retracements

Monday turned out to be a really good trading day and I got a lot of help from the only technical indicators that I use for binary options trading – daily pivot points and Fibonacci retracements. When I started watching the pair around 2:30AM EST, the USD/CHF was in an uptrend after consolidating around the pivot level of 0.92838 (purple line on chart) during the very early morning.

As it was heading up, I had my sights set on two different levels as potential areas of reversal. One was the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (drawn from the price move 0.91748-0.97500) at 0.92979. That being said, I tend to not place a lot of emphasis on the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. It doesn’t seem to hold as well as the 23.6%, 50.0%, and 61.8% levels on both short-term and long-term timeframes. The reason is that it simply isn’t used as much as those aforementioned levels. In fact, many trading softwares don’t even have the 78.6% present on it’s Fibonacci retracement drawing tool. Some use 76.4% (reverse of 23.6%), although the 78.6% does have actual relation to the Fibonacci sequence in that it’s the square root of 61.8% when expressed as a decimal. Either way, I place less attention to the 78.6% than I would to others.

Price went right through the 78.6% Fib on its first try and even went above the 0.9300 whole number and the green resistance 1 line (0.93041) on the following candlestick before wicking back down. The action of it wicking back down told me that resistance 1 would likely indeed serve as resistance should it get back up to that level again.

About twenty minutes later, price re-touched resistance 1 on the 3:15 candlestick, but I did not immediately take a trade. If the trend was down or neutral, I would have had no issue with taking a put option on the touch of resistance 1 (0.93041). But given the trend was so strongly up at this point and the re-test of the 0.93041 level came after a weak retracement (only dipped down about nine pips after a 25-pip move), I decided to wait for it to wick back down again to see if the level would still hold. Indeed, that’s acting very conservative, but I wanted to get all the confirmation I possibly could that resistance 1 would still be likely to hold. Plus, I still had over ten minutes before the expiration of the trade so there wasn’t necessarily any reason to rush it.

After the close of the 3:15 candle, however, my price feed very inconveniently froze on my ThinkOrSwim software. So I immediately opened up one of my MetaTrader4 platforms and began watching the USD/CHF on a plain five-minute price chart. Once I saw price touch 0.93401 on MT4 I entered my first trade of the day, a put option, and saw the trade do nothing but continuously go in my favor the whole time. I wound up with a nine-pip winner, which is great for a relatively tranquil time period.

The market continued to move lower after the trade. I didn’t have any clear idea as to where potential call options could set up. I was thinking possibly back down at the pivot level of 0.92838, as price had shown some sensitivity to that point in the market earlier. For put options, I was considering the 78.6% Fib retracement or either back up at resistance 1.

The 78.6% Fibonacci line became the next possible set-up when price touched 0.92979 on the 3:55 candle. The next candlestick did not re-touch the level but did form what is typically referred to as a “hanging man” candle and can indicate upcoming reversal. When price re-touched 0.92979 on the 4:05 candlestick I took a put option. This produced a six-pip winner.

Following that, I considered 0.92873 for put options (from previous support made on the 3:45 and 3:50 candles), but price fell through that level on the 4:20 candle. The market also fell through the pivot point on the next candle. At this point, I had my eyes set on the pivot point for put options and the 61.8% Fib retracement level (0.92745) for call options. A support level did exist about halfway through that channel based on the price action from earlier in the morning. However, in a period of greater volume in the market, I fully expected that to be breached in favor of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement instead.

After the break of the pivot level, price came up, re-touched, and rejected 0.92838 on the following candle. Therefore, given the price action pattern and the overall recent downtrend, I took a put option at the touch of the pivot on the 4:35 candle. This trade went in my favor the entire time and was up by ten pips at one point before settling as a six-pip winner.

My next trade came right after on the 4:45 candle using the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for support, after it was strongly rejected on the previous candle. This Fib line was actually relevant to a different price move (0.70675-1.06387) that represents the top and bottom of a very large amount of price data viewable from the weekly time compression. Hence, a Fib level showing up from such a significant price move is very likely to be respected. In fact, price had been gravitating around it very often within the past day and I had set a buy limit order at the exact level in my spot forex trading. This call option trade won by seven pips.

After this trade, a channel formed between the daily pivot level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. However, I refrained from further trades at these levels as I wasn’t getting a touch/reject/re-touch pattern to form. The market eventually broke below the 61.8% (0.92745) level on the 6:15 candle, and re-tested it again on the 6:25 and 6:45 candles. Once price re-touched the level again on the 6:50 candle, I entered a put option on the touch of 0.92745. I expected the level to hold to the downside due to the 61.8% Fib acting as resistance in addition to the trend being down. However, I ended up losing this trade by one pip, as price broke back above the 61.8% Fib. In hindsight, the fact that the put option did not work out seems pretty clear based on the fact that the market simply did not move below it very much. In other words, there simply were not enough sellers to drive the price down further, and hence why the 61.8% Fib only saw five pips of downward action beneath it. So even though I lost the trade, I still felt I learned something from it that could make me a better trader. It’s an old cliché that we should always strive to learn from our mistakes and it’s something that I feel holds especially true with regard to trading.

My final trade of the day, a put option, came back up at the pivot point of 0.92838 on the touch of the level on the 7:15 candle, as price had rejected the pivot on the preceding candle. This trade was in my favor until near the very end, when price went above my entry and closed just over two pips against me.

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While I did end up losing my last two trades of the day, I was very happy with how things played out overall. Six set-ups in five hours on one asset is definitely an indication of some favorable price action based on my personal approach to trading binaries.

This was a bit of a detailed post and I can see how it could become confusing if the screenshots aren’t enough to sort things out. So please never hesitate to ask about anything regarding any of my posts or with regard to trading, in general. I’ll always do my best to reply back in a timely manner.

VanEck Vectors AMT-Free Intermediate Municipal Index ETF (ITM)

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ITM Interactive Chart

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4/6 ITM using daily pivot points and fibonacci retracements

Filters in Forex Trading (TOFTEM model)

Hello Forex traders,

Last week’s article introduced the TOFTEM model. which is a method for traders to structure their trading plan. That model recommends using 5 clear steps when tackling the market.

This model is also part of a process when Forex traders build their strategies. Read more about this here:

Traders want to make sure that they know what they are looking for when analyzing the market and that they have a clear definition of:

5) E ntry M ethod

Today’s focus is point 3: FILTERS.

PROCESS OF A SETUP OR TRADE

The previous articles discussed what type of environment (trend, reversal, range) traders are looking for to trade and what kind of opportunity (chart patterns, SR, etc) do they consider interesting with their environment.

When the market meets the conditions a trader is looking for, then there is a potential trade setup. A potential trade setup still needs to be checked for filters. If there are not filters blocking the potential of a trade setup, then we have a confirmed trade setup but not yet a trade.

Only when a trigger and a clear entry are present, will the confirmed trade setup turn into an actual trade. Here is an overview of the process:

1) Trend currency pair matches chosen environment and definition

initial interest continue to step 2 / if not, go to new pair

2) Opportunity currency pair has chosen opportunity

potential trade setup continue to step 3 / if not, new pair

3) Filters currency pair has no filters

confirmed trade setup continue to step 4 / if not, new pair

4) Trigger currency pair has a trigger

potential trade continue to step 4 / if not, new pair

5) Entry method trader decided which way to enter

actual trade entered the market / if not, new pair

WHAT ARE FILTERS?

Filters are elements or aspects (both on and off of the chart) which are always reviewed by the trader when a potential trade setup occurs.

Which aspects will depend from trader to trader, although concrete examples will be provided in a later part of the article. Generally speaking, in the WET trading room we use news events (off chart), bank holidays (off chart), technical analysis (on chart), and reward to risk ratios (money management) elements as filters.

If the filters are hindering or blocking the trade from materializing, then the potential trade setup is negated and the trader can move on to looking at new pairs and charts.

If the filters are not hindering or blocking the trade from materializing, then the potential trade setup is confirmed and the trader can move on the next step in the TOFTEM model, which is the trigger.

WHY USE FILTERS

First of all, a potential trade setup usually does not equal an actual entry / trade because the trader would be overtrading. Most strategies create lots of setups, but not all setups are created equal. That is when filters step in.

Filters must have a positive impact by either reducing the number of losing trades, or by reducing risk in periods of high volatility and insecurity (such as a NFP news event).

Filters are therefore useful to decrease the number of trades which have less chance of success than other setups. This process is basically filtering out setups (hence the word filters) and distinguishing the profitable ones from the less profitable ones.

At the end of the day, Filters should on average have a positive net impact on the bottom line, also known as the monthly profit or loss, otherwise the filter becomes obsolete. Of course, it can and will always happen that some profitable trades are filtered out, but on average the filter impact should be positive for the expected profit.

TYPES OF FILTERS

Traders can use discretionary or non-discretionary filters.

Discretionary filters: the trader reviews a chart with their usual tools and indicators to judge whether the setup meets the conditions of the trading plan. Which tools and indicators are used could vary from case to case, or the interpretation of the tools and indicators can differ.

Non-discretionary filters: contrary to the above, in this case traders use fixed levels and interpretations when judging filters.

EXAMPLES OF FILTERS

Remember, traders are trying to filter on average trades with higher chance of turning into a loss. That is traders want to analyze the market and judge whether there is an aspect that could hinder a setup from materializing. Here are examples:

2) Bank holidays

3) Support and resistance

4) Fibonacci retracements

5) Oscillator values

6) Tops and bottoms

9) Trend channels

10) Price action

11) Candle stick patterns

12) High and lows of candles

13) Currency correlations

14) Time of the day, week, month

15) Currency pair characteristics

A trader does not usually use all of the above mentioned examples, but the list was compiled to provide a good source of inspiration for traders who are developing this part of their trading plan.

WHEN ARE TRADES BLOCKED?

Beyond the examples provided in the above paragraph, the best thing a trader can do is to think conceptually why a potential setup could not materialize. This answer will vary from setup to setup. Basically the trader needs to understand the weakness of their strategy.

Just as a trader can map out their own strengths and weaknesses, the trader can complete the same for their strategy or strategies. By understanding in which scenario their strategy is more vulnerable, the trader can attempt to create solutions (filters) which help improve the results of the strategy.

Which filters are actually useful depends on the parameters of the strategy:

A with the trend trader could realize that their strategy is especially vulnerable when there is divergence present on the 4 hour chart and add this to their list of filters.

A range trader could realize that their strategy is especially vulnerable when there is high impact news event which could let price spike up and down and thereby break the range.

A reversal trader could realize that their strategy is especially vulnerable when price is near a major Fibonacci level which could act as a turning point for the trend.

Last but not least, before implementing a filter, always check and make sure what the impact is of your chosen filter.

Do you use filters and why? Which filters do you find the most profitable? Let us know down below!

Thank you all for reading and sharing this article and wish you Good Trading!

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Fibonacci trading strategy

Fibonacci Trading Strategy

Last Updated: February 16, 2020 by Martin

A series of numbers, in which the sum of first of the two numbers forms the third number is said to be the Fibonacci number. Recently the Fibonacci numbers has been popularly used in the field of trading. There are some tools are available to monitor and chart the trade platforms analyzing their functionalities. Many professional traders started to choose the Fibonacci Trading Strategy for their charting and trading platforms. Binary options activities produce remarkable results in analysis techniques.

They are the numbers of magic and these sequences are used in many aspects in trade analysis. Signals can be generated by large number of traders as the technical analysis indicator. The major positions where traders occupy will leads to the success of the indicators. The above graph shows a sample of Fibonacci lines and the binary option strike price location. The growth and fall analysis of the simple graph is clearly given.

Binary Options Trading Using Fibonacci Trading Strategy

The binary options Fibonacci Tool are used by both beginners as well as the professional traders. The entrancement or the extension levels were used more efficiently and hence this is said to be an effective tool. It is a good opportunity for the traders to grow more and gain money. They must be alert to notice the prices before changing directions. The prediction of traders over the market, whether to buy or sell shows us the benefits of retracements.

Professional Trader’s Tool

If a trader uses all the instruments in the charts to build a trading system it is going to be a real success depends upon the direction of the price of stock in the market. Some of the professional traders use only selective tools to show off their simplicity. Among all other developed Fibonacci tools the retracement tool stands first. They show the normal part in trading. It is up to the traders to make more money depending upon the tool they select in order to reduce their risk.

Fibonacci tools grab the attention of the technical traders because they function with a easy and enough frequency. The Binary option Fibonacci tool has high levels of resistance and support; they may vary from peak to trough. An important task to be done by traders is, to keep updating the knowledge about the strategy and the tools every time. The challenges of the traders are to keepup the strategy and abide all the instructions given on the platform, for a proper as well as beneficial way.

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High probability trading strategies book

High Probability Trading Strategies Book

By Robert Miner

“High Probability Trading Strategies is a practical no-hype, no-nonsense guide to doing what is necessary for lasting success as a trader.”?

From The Book Preface

High Probability Trading Strategies is one of the few trading books where you learn a complete trade management plan from entry to exit.

If you are a new trader, or one who has not yet found consistent success in the business of trading futures, stocks or forex, you will learn specific trading strategies from how to identify high probability trade conditions, to the specific entry and stop price through exit strategies that are designed to maximize the gain from any trend. If you are an experienced and successful trader, I know that you will recognize several key strategies to incorporate into your existing trade plan that should immediately increase your success. Today’s rapid pace of online trading requires that you give yourself this competitive advantage.

The combination of book and CD will provide more information in a better learning environment than is possible in an expensive weekend workshop.

You will learn my unique approach to the four main factors of technical analysis including Multiple Time Frame Momentum Setups and the one main guideline to recognize the pattern structure of trends and corrections. Plus, you will learn my Dynamic Price and Time Strategies to identify in advance the probable price and time targets for trends and corrections. You will learn two powerful and logical objective entry techniques and how to manage a trade for short and intermediate term gains through the trade exit in any market and any time frame. I’ve also devoted an entire chapter called Real Traders, Real Time to trade examples submitted by my past students who show how they apply the trading strategies you learn in this book every day to markets from around the world.

The video CD takes the learning experience to a much higher level than any book is able to do on its own. In the video CD, you will see more examples of how to apply the High Probability Trading Strategies for many markets and time frames in bar-by-bar and step-by-step recordings.

I’m certain High Probability Trading Strategies and the accompanying video CD will become one of your most important trading reference books. It may even become the complete trading plan you have been looking for to manage trades from entry to exit for any market and any time frame.

Join Robert Miner, a 25 year trading veteran and leading trading educator as he teaches you practical, objective trade strategies from entry to exit for any market and any time frame including:

Multiple Time Frame Momentum Strategies – An objective filter to identify high probability trade setups. The most powerful approach I’ve discovered in over 25 years to filter any market and any time frame for trade direction and execution.

Practical Pattern Recognition for Trends and Counter Corrections – How to recognize trend position and reversals for trade position. You will learn to be aware in advance if a market is at or near a reversal and gain a huge edge. Simplified Elliott wave with just one primary guideline!

Beyond Fib Retracements – High probability price targets for support/resistance and trend reversal. Learn new and unique ways to project in advance very narrow-range price targets for any market condition. Learn how to determine in advance which retracement level should be a trend reversal, not just minor support or resistance.

Beyond Traditional Cycles – Pinpoint in advance high probability time targets for trend reversals. You will learn how to project very narrow range time targets for trend reversal for any market condition and any time frame.

Entry Strategies and Position Size – Learn completely objective entry strategies including the specific entry price and initial protective stop for all market conditions. Plus, learn the correct position size to maximize returns, a key approach to a consistently successful trader.

Exit Strategies and Trade Management – Sound and logical trade management and exit strategies are the key to maximizing the return on each and every trade. You will learn how to manage the trade from entry to exit, including how and when to adjust the stop-loss throughout the trade.

Trading The Plan – Real Traders, Real Time – Real time trade examples from a variety of traders who have been taught by Robert. This is a comprehensive and key section of the book where you learn how a variety of traders trade in a variety of markets and time frames from trade entry to trade exit.

The Business of Trading and Other Matters – Give yourself the best opportunity for success and to maximize your trading return by treating trading like you would any other business. Learn why traders win or lose. Learn about day, swing and position trading. How to trade the big trends with minimal risk and why you can’t buy success.

Video CD – An incredible book bonus. Over two hours of bar-by-bar examples of several markets and time frames from entry to exit recorded especially for the book. Better than most live workshops and it’s included with the ridiculously low book price. (Special Note: The video CD is only available with the hard back English version of the book. It is not available with the Kindle editions or most non-English translations.)

Frankly, if you don’t take your trading to a higher level after studying the High Probability Trading Strategies book and video CD, you shouldn’t have a trading account. This book takes you step-by-step through a complete trade strategy from entry to exit for any market and any time frame.

Who is Robert Miner?

250 year trading veteran and trading educator who has produced live and multimedia practical trading workshops for traders in over 30 countries. Robert is a no nonsense trading educator who cuts through the overly complicated BS of many trading strategies and gets down to brass tacks, teaching practical trade strategies for any market and any time frame.

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William eckhardt acritical turtle trading teacher

William Eckhardt: A Critical Turtle Trading Teacher

When Bill Eckhardt left the University of Chicago and foresook his nearly completed PhD in mathematical logic in 1973, he did not abandon his educational pursuits; rather, he focused them on a myriad of disciplines that supported his research in creating trading systems. Eckhardt joined high school friend Richard Dennis as a trader on the Mid-America Exchange. The two would later become partners in C&D Commodities, where they created technical trading systems and launched the famous turtle trading experiment. Details of the turtle experiment have become legendary, but the proof of its value can be seen in the many highly successful trading businesses it launched, as is demonstrated by our class of Top Traders of 2020. Eckhardt launched his own commodity trading advisor (CTA) in 1991, which has produced a compound annual return of 17.35% over 20 years and earned 21.09% in 2020. In addition to building trading systems, Eckhardt has developed a science of trading and written academic papers on the philosophy of science. Here, we discuss his scientific approach to trading.

Futures Magazine: Many in the traditional investment world cling to the notion that markets are efficient. Trend-following is not valid under the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) but here you are 30 years later. Why has the EMH persisted? Talk about this anomaly.

Bill Eckhardt: The random walk model of price change has been so durable because it’s nearly correct. The difference between futures prices and certain random walks is too small to detect using traditional time series analysis. Incredibly, this difference is detectable using trading systems.

FM: How do trading systems do this?

BE: Trading systems can be highly sensitive to non-linear relations in price series. So why doesn’t this revolutionize the modeling of price series? Statistical estimators probe particular features of the price series; they are equipped with confidence levels, give information about possible models, and are useful for prediction. From the point of view of the modeler, trading systems do not locate specific features of the price series; they have no confidence levels and are useless for prediction. Worst of all, they say little about any possible model. Trading systems can be highly remunerative, but they don’t tell the modeler what he or she needs to know. In the same way models, although valuable in other respects, do not help in designing trading systems.

FM: You have spent a lifetime in trading and in research. Name a couple of simple truths that you have discovered.

BE: Improve your trading or it will degrade; there’s no coasting in this game. You can be creative in research but don’t trade creatively; in other words, stick to your systems. Trading is a little like morality in that it’s a lot easier to know what you should do than to do it. Finally, use only robust estimators and very large samples, not dozens, but thousands

FM: It seems there is a constant battle with systematic traders between sticking with your models and constantly improving and evolving. How difficult is it to balance these elements that at times seem conflicting?

BE: If your trading system is inadequate, you shouldn’t use it. If your system is good, then stick to it faithfully. In the meantime search vigorously for improvement. When the new system is ready you can change to it – you are not thereby failing to stick to your system. So there need be no conflict between persistence and change.

FM: Talk about the battle between optimization and curve fitting.

BE: By trying to improve your system you can make it worse. You can over-fit to past data or maybe just do something that is statistically invalid. There is an idea, though it is not universally subscribed to, that you should not optimize your systems. That you should just figure out what are reasonable numbers and go with that. I don’t believe in that; we optimize all the time, but there is some truth to it in the sense that if you over-fit, you are going to hurt yourself. Optimizing is a somewhat hazardous procedure, as is trading. And it has to be done with carefulness and deliberateness, and you have to make sure that you are not over-fitting to past data.

FM: How do you ward off curve-fitting?

BE: What most people use to ward it off is the in-sample/out-of-sample technique where they keep half their data for optimization and half their data for testing. That is an industry standard. We don’t do that; it wastes half of the data. We have our own proprietary techniques for over-fitting that we actually just improved on a year ago. It is important to test for over-fitting; if you don’t have your own test use the in-sample/out-of-sample [technique]. I can talk a little more about over-fitting, if not my personal proprietary techniques. First of all I like the [term] over-fitting rather than curve-fitting because curve-fitting is a term from non-linear regression analysis. It is where you have a lot of data and you are fitting the data points to some curve. Well, you are not doing that with futures. Technically there is no curve-fitting here; the term does not apply. But what you can do is you can over-fit. The reason I like the term over-fit rather than curve-fit is that over-fit shows that you also can under-fit. The people who do not optimize are under-fitting. Now the two numbers that most determine if you are over-fitting are the number of degrees of freedom in the system. Every time you need a number to define the system, like a certain number of days back, a certain distance in price, a certain threshold, anything like that is a degree of freedom. The more degrees of freedom that you have the more likely that you are to over-fit. Now the other side of it is the number of trades you have. The more trades you have, the less you tend to over-fit, so you can afford slightly more degrees of freedom. We don’t allow more than 12 degrees of freedom in any system. If you put more bells and whistles on your system it is easy to get 40 degrees of freedom but we hold it to 12. On the other side of that, for us to make a trade we have to have a sample of at least 1,800; we won’t make a trade unless we have 1,800 examples. That is our absolute minimum. Typically we would have 15,000 trades of a certain kind before we would make an inference as to whether we want to do it. The reason you need so many is the heavy tail phenomena. It is not only that heavy tails cause extreme events, which can mess up your life, the real problem with the heavy tails is that they can weaken your ability to make proper inferences. Normal distribution people say that large samples kick in around 35. In other words, if you have a normal distribution and you are trying to estimate a mean, if you have more than 35 you’ve got a good estimate. [In] contrast, with the kind of distributions we have with futures trading you can have hundreds of samples and they could still be inadequate; that is why we go for 1,800 as a minimum. That is strictly a function of the fatness of tails of the distribution. You have to use robust statistical techniques and these robust statistical techniques are blunt instruments. [They] are data hogs, so both seem to be disadvantages but they have the advantages of tending to be correct.

FM: What is it about your systems that have persisted so long and what adjustments, if any, have you made over the years?

BE: Aristotle’s Ship of Theseus gradually had every one of its parts replaced. Was it still the Ship of Theseus? Over the decades every part of our systems has been modified. It’s our scientific approach that persists and supports the whole structure.

FM: There seems to be a growing understanding of tail risk and the value of strategies that can take advantage of it instead of simply hedging it. As a result, managed futures are becoming more popular. Do you agree and, more importantly, do you see this as a permanent shift or a temporary reaction to the recent financial crisis?

BE: I’d like to distinguish diversifying from hedging. Futures trading diversifies risk and can improve returns, but it falls short of a hedge. Hedging requires anti-correlation to the risk that is hedged. Futures returns mostly are uncorrelated to those of other assets. This makes them an excellent vehicle for diversification. The large-tail phenomenon means that most statistical tests overestimate reliability and underestimate risk. I don’t know if it’s possible to take advantage of this, but it’s important to protect yourself from it.

FM: You make an important distinction between diversifying and hedging, but many equity-based managers are looking at tail risk insurance strategies. Wouldn’t an allocation to managed futures provide better insurance as it has been shown to be negatively correlated in bear equity markets?

BE: If you select unique periods such as when stocks are extremely weak, it creates a powerful selection bias. The anti-correlation found in these studies may have been a selection artifact. Futures trading has its own heavy tail to add to the mix. The key is independence, which makes efficient diversification possible.

FM: It has been shown that normal distribution curves under-estimate tail risk in equities. Does your approach give you a better picture of the tail risk in your trend-following approach?

BE: Tail risk is hard to estimate but we spent over 25 years on this project. We have worked on it really hard and we do have various techniques to deal with the fact that the tails are so heavy. It is absolutely crucial because the tail risk changes everything that we do. Every single part of designing and implementing the system is affected by the fact that you have more extreme values than you expect under any kind of normal model.

FM: Are you better prepared because trend-following as a model attempts to take advantage of this tail phenomenon in the general market?

BE: Yes, but it has its own tail risk. I have a little bit of trouble with the idea that the tail risk in futures trading is what is helping because I see it strictly as a hindrance, strictly as a problem to be overcome. You may have a point because I guess it helps to have these really big outsized moves. It is only going to help you if you treat it like a wild tiger. …Trend-following doesn’t work only because of the tail risk but tail risk turns up the volume.

FM: We spoke to Richard Dennis a couple of years ago and he said that trend-following is getting more difficult and systems don’t hold their edge as long. Do you agree?

BE: In general I agree that it is getting harder and you have to improve, though I don’t know that you have to improve faster. Hastiness can be costly in this game. When you are doing your research and you are improving, it should be with the confidence that the system you are currently trading is good. The value of the current system you are trading gives you the time to make a deliberate and cautious improvement.

FM: Some people claim managed futures’ ability to be negatively correlated to equities in poor equity markets has to do with the long-term bull market in bonds and that may not be the case in a rising interest rate environment. Is this something investors should be weary of?

BE: It sounds to me that what they are doing is they’re looking at the fact that trend-following has been profitable, which probably irritates them anyway — [Trend-following] really only has a record of 30 or 40 years — then they are looking at what the biggest economic factor [was] in that time? Well we have had these declining interest rates and they say one has to cause the other. I just don’t see it. In analyzing my own performance I can’t find a pattern where I am making an unusual amount of money in the interest rates and not the other stuff. So I would be very skeptical of that idea that all the money in trend-following comes from the behavior in one group of markets. I want to mention that this whole question of risk control it is not a completely objective question. I wanted to invent a science of trading that I at least partially completed; I certainly havent done everything that I set out to do. When I was a young man I wanted to devise objective risk systems. In other words, once you have a system, what is the right size to trade, period. After years of working on this I convinced myself that it did not have a unique answer. You need at least one subjective piece of the puzzle to put it together, and that is an individual’s risk aversion. Now that is subjective. There is no rule that says how averse you should be to risk, that is an integral element of your personality. But unless you know how averse to risk you are or unless you can impute risk aversion to your clients, you really can’t settle the question of how big you should trade.

FM: Is there a risk that managers end up measuring themselves instead of the markets?

BE: Every strategy has a finite capacity. It is possible for a trading strategy to get oversubscribed and no longer work. That hasn’t happened with trend-following but the game has gotten harder.

FM: Every few years after a rough period someone says trend-following is dead.

BE: I lived through the death of trend-following a half dozen times and, like Mark Twain’s death, it was highly exaggerated.

FM: You have a fascinating background. Tell us how you went from a PHD candidate at the University of Chicago to trading futures.

BE: My interest in futures trading dates back to high school, as does my first collaboration with Rich Dennis. At the University of Chicago I specialized in mathematical logic and had a great opportunity to pursue my interests in the philosophy of science and the history of ideas. The latter were influential in shaping my approach to trading. In 1973 my advisor and I were having disagreements about the direction my dissertation was taking, and Rich suggested I take a little time off and come down to the floor to trade. I didn’t go back [to school].

FM: Many of the turtles have gone on to great success as well as some of the C&D traders, even though their strategies have evolved into something quite different than the original. Was there something much more basic in the lessons that allowed so many to succeed and create new strategies?

BE: The turtles were stringently selected and highly talented. They also received training, practice, and guidance. They got a good start from us, but they deserve most of the credit for their ongoing success. The successful turtles have branched out widely, but my trading has also changed; it’s evolve or perish. As I recall more than half the course revolved around developing the right attitude, guarding against debilitating emotions, how to think about risk, and how to handle success and failure. Teaching the turtle system itself doesn’t take very long. I was saying you need less than 12 degrees of freedom in a system; versions of the turtle system had three or four. We spent a lot of time talking about our theories on how to control risk; that was actually the bulk of the course. Attitude, emotional control, discipline; those things are harder to teach. All the turtles learned the system and learned the strategy; that was the easy part, but some of them brought the right attitude and right mental set to it and they prospered and became very rich. Others had a more halting career and did not succeed as well. They had the same training, but maybe they did not have the same emotional make-up.

FM: Talk a little bit about position sizing and risk management and the role they play in long-term success.

BE: When and where you initiate a trade is a lot less important than how large you trade and how you liquidate. Unfortunately, traders tend to put a great effort into trade initiation and let risk management stagnate. Small improvements in risk or volatility assessment may not be exciting, but they are among the most lasting and beneficial changes. One approach to avoid is to design the system first, then to tack on risk management. I compare this to Wells’ “The Island of Doctor Moreau,” because it’s like grafting the head of one creature onto the body of another. System and risk management should be developed together; the connection should be seamless.

FM: You and Richard Dennis made a bet on whether you could teach trading; can you teach pension managers and financial academics that markets aren’t always efficient?

BE: Various eyewitnesses to this episode disagree, a good example of the unreliability of this kind of testimony. I don’t believe I ever advocated that trading cannot be taught, but if my memory is faulty on this point, I freely admit that, like virtually any human activity, trading can be taught and practice can improve performance. All parties agree, however, there was no bet. Possibly an argument among hundreds of others, but no bet.

FM: That question was supposed to be funny. Basically I am curious about your opinion of why a strategy — trend-following — that has been utilized successfully by many managers over many years is still questioned, even dismissed, by many academics.

BE: For the last 20 years many academics have been critical of the random walk model of price change, although suggested changes are usually minor. A few commentators have even pointed out that the existence of profitable trading systems conflicts with the random walk model. However these same commentators take this as a sign that there is something wrong with their models; they do not analyze and improve trading systems which to them are only inconvenient details about price series.

FM: Some academics still do not believe trend-following works.

BE: They are flying in the face of a lot of data. Forget me; there are dozens of managers with a long track record. A few people — a very few out of a large sample — can profit even in a random market, but that is very few; 1 in 500, 1 in 1,000. Trend-following has had a much better track record than that. But whenever they are confronted with this, the track records of trend followers, they say these people are making money some other way. That is not impossible. When I was in the pit, there were good traders who used these numbers based on three-day moving averages, they were totally pointless numbers and I knew it back then, but they were given out as support and resistance levels and these traders were among the best traders I knew who used these numbers and they would swear by them. I watched their trading and after a while I noticed that the numbers didn’t make any difference, maybe they were trading on the numbers but they were always buying on the bid and selling on the offer. So I guess it is possible that somebody could make money and not know how they are doing it, but that was on the floor where you are getting edges. Trend followers, like myself, are trading off the floor where we are giving up edges so our expected performances should be negative in a random walk. In the face of all that empirical evidence they should be reassessing their position but I have discovered that a lot of academics never change their position and the only way [it will change] is when the older academics die. Part of the problem is that estimators don’t show every divergence from randomness. Let’s say you have a system and it goes long corn. Let’s say it is a model that says corn goes up 2?. If corn goes up 8?, by the normal way of measuring, it was off by 6? so it was a bad prediction. It was a good trade but a bad prediction. You simply can’t treat trades and prediction the same way and the academics all are focused on prediction. Now superficially it seems like trading is a form of prediction but it really isn’t. If you design your system where you are trying to predict the market, then it doesn’t work. You have to concentrate on projecting losses, risk management and finding something that works, but if you are directly looking for prediction that tends to be self-stultifying.

FM: But isn’t that the point of trend-following—that you are not predicting, just defining a trend and taking advantage of it?

BE: That’s right. And if you look at me as a predictor instead of as a trader—as a trader I am way ahead, as a predictor I am scoring about 35%, so I am not very good as a predictor. Those are different skills. But still even with trend followers you will hear people say, “Where do you think the market is going?” It is just human nature to try and approach this in terms of making a prediction.

FM: After watching managers for more than a decade, it seems to me that there is more diversity within what is loosely defined as the medium – to long-term trend-following space than most people give it credit for.

BE: That is right. People look too much at the correlation between traders. The fact of the matter is [that] correlations tend to overstate the relationship. The reason being, whatever kind of a trader you are — let’s say you are a medium – to long-term trader—if you are a fundamentalist, if you are countertrend you know you try and buy the bottom and sell the top—or if you are a trend follower, at that time frame you are going to make money and everyone makes money in the trends. They do it in different ways, they get in at different places, they have different approaches but they make money in the trends. So when you look at the performance they correlate more than they should. So now if you narrow your scope to just trend followers, they are really going to correlate more than they should. So that gives the impression that they are really all just doing the same thing, which theyre not. So there is more diversification among trend followers than one would expect. There really are different varieties of trend-following and they really do have different properties.

FM: There are signs this industry that you have been involved in for more than 30 years is moving into the mainstream. What do you see as the future?

BE: Well, it is well overdue. I don’t have to tell you that they were trading futures in the 19th century and this is the 21st. People talk about futures as derivatives and that might be technically true but the fact is these have been around for a long time. For all that time futures have had the reputation of being really risky. It took people to lose several fortunes over and over again in the stock market to finally figure out that it is the stock market that is really risky. Futures are only as risky as you want [them] to be because you can leverage [them] down so easily. I don’t understand why futures had the bad reputation for all of those years, and if it is coming into the mainstream it is long overdue.

FM: We know you are more of a technician than a fundamentalist but give us your outlook on the investing landscape. Is it a good time to be in managed futures? Is it a good time to be a trend follower?

BE: I can’t predict the direction of the economy, but it’s a safe bet that it’s going to be a roller coaster ride. In the past such periods have been good for the trend follower. This is, however, a flimsy argument – it’s impressionistic and rests on a small sample. The real reason to participate is that futures trading has been beneficial in general, and now is likely to be as good a time as any.

Eckhardt lost the bet with Dennis. He did not think the turtles could be trained. Given his high degree of education, it is likely the turtle experiment was somewhat discomforting. The turtle experiment proved that you did not need a doctoral degree in mathematical logic to win. In fact, it proved anyone could win:

Q. How did you become partners with Richard Dennis?

A. Rich & I were friends in high school. Rich began trading when he was in college. I stayed in school, working toward a doctoral dissertation in mathematical logic. In 1974 I got bogged down for political reasons. I was writing a dissertation on mathematical logic under a world-famous mathematician. A new faculty member whose specialization happened to be mathematical logic joined the staff. Theoretically, I was his only student. The supervisory role on my thesis was shifted from my existing advisor to this new faculty member, who then decided that he really wanted me to do a different thesis. As a result, after I had done all my course work, taken my exams, and finished three-quarters of my dissertation, my progress was stymied. At the time, Richard suggested that I take a sabbatical to try trading on the floor. I did, and I never returned to school.

Covered calls-trading covered calls on leaps-part1

Covered Calls Trading Covered Calls on LEAPs — Part 1

Nov 8, 2008, 7:29 am EST | By John Jagerson. Editor, SlingShot Trader

Covered calls are a great strategy for reducing account volatility and earning income against your long stock positions. And long-term equity anticipation securities, or LEAPs, are a way to “lease” stocks for less money than it costs to acquire the stock outright.

Is there a way to combine the benefits of these two investing strategies to get the best of both worlds? Yes there is — by selling covered calls against a long LEAP option position.

This series of articles will focus on covered calls on LEAPs, aka diagonal spreads strategy. If you have a basic understanding of covered calls and LEAPs, this should be something you will be interested in.

In this first part of the series, we will start the discussion about covered calls on LEAPs by looking at the risk profile of the trade compared to its potential benefits. Covered calls on LEAPs have distinct advantages, but understanding the risks is important as well.

Here are a few of the key concepts to keep in mind when trading covered calls on a LEAPs:

1. You are short a call without an underlying stock position. This means that if you are “called out,” you will find yourself short the stock.

2. A LEAP option has time value that is melting each day as you near expiration.

3. Option trades are often at a higher commission rate, and this will increase your trading costs.

The benefits of trading a covered calls on LEAPs are significant, and I will outline a few of those in the list below:

1. The LEAP contract is cheaper than the underlying stock, and that increases your leverage and potential return on investment (ROI).

2. Because the LEAP contract is cheaper, you have less risk in absolute dollar terms than if you were holding the underlying stock.

3. This is a strategy that can be used with index options as well as stocks and ETFs.

4. Using it on index options with European-style expiration eliminates the possibility of early exercise of the short call.

Balance the risks and benefits to decide whether this strategy works for you and to help you decide the best way to implement it within your portfolio.

In this series of articles, I will use a case study to illustrate the concepts. Repeat the steps in the case study on an option of your choice in a paper trade. Repeating the method yourself will help you understand the strategy and remember how it works.

Forex uk

Buy and sell currencies

The foreign exchange market – or forex for short – is the buying and selling of currencies, and it’s one of the fastest growing markets in the world. Forex trading works much like it does with stock trading; you buy low and sell high. You can trade forex conveniently online 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. Plus, you can buy and sell at any time, in bull markets and in bear markets. Learn More

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Tax Treatment: The UK tax treatment of your financial betting activities depends on your individual circumstances and may be subject to change in the future, or may differ in other jurisdictions.

Introduction to Forex Trading

What is Forex Trading?

invest11/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/forex. jpeg” /% It is important to understand the basis of trading currencies as a way of knowing how the forex market works.

Beginners Guide to Trading Forex:

Understanding the Ins and Outs of Forex Trading

Forex trading simply means the business of trying to make money from the differential in the exchange rates of one currency against another. Forex trading came about as a result of the process of floating exchange rates, which allow a currency’s value to be determined by the forces of supply and demand. But was this always the situation? Let’s delve a bit deeper into the history of the forex market.

Towards the end of the 19 th century, paper notes began to replace older forms of currency that were in use at the time. By the time the Second World War was in progress, almost every country in the world had its own currency. Colonized territories assumed the currencies of their colonial masters. This war was principally fought by the Germans, Japanese and Italians on one hand, and the British-led Allied Forces on the other. America joined the parley after the Pearl Harbour bombing and so was relatively spared by the bruising economic effects of this war. By 1944, the economies of the principal actors in this war were on life support. To chart a course for the post-war era, an economic conference was convened in Bretton-Woods, USA in 1944. One of the outcomes of that meeting was that all global transactions and currencies were pegged to the currency of the relatively unaffected US economy, and in turn the US Dollar was pegged to a gold standard of $35 an ounce. Over the next 27 years, the value of this standard kept depreciating as the US grappled with the economic effects of the Vietnam war, leading the Nixon-led US government to abandon the gold standard. Other countries also unbundled their US Dollar peg and the era of global currency floatation was born.

It is the fact that most world currencies are now allowed to float and have their values determined on a minute-by-minute basis by market forces that has led to the concept of forex trading.

From 1971 to 1996, the trading of currencies was the exclusive preserve of institutional traders, made up of banks and high net-worth individuals who pooled money together into massive hedge funds. There was no place for individual traders because most could not afford the large capital outlay required to profit from minute price movements in the currency market. However, as the concept of margin and leveraging were developed and cheaper access to borrowed funds was made available, the forex market was deregulated in 1997 to allow for individual participation in the market. Since that landmark year, the daily turnover of the forex market has increased substantially to stand at about 4 trillion US dollars. This is a truly phenomenal amount of money floating around and if you have what it takes, you can grab your share by participating in the market.

Requirements for Forex Trading

To be able to participate in the forex market, a trader needs access to this huge virtual exchange. This he can do by obtaining a forex trading account with a broker licensed to provide this service, identification document such as an international passport, drivers’ license and a utility bill or bank/credit card statement as proof of address. These documents are required for account activation.

Once the account has been activated, the trader can then use an acceptable means of transferring funds to his trading account domiciled with his broker in order to start trading. This can be done via a bank transfer, credit/debit card or any of the e-wallet services like Paypal, Moneybookers and Neteller. It is this money that will serve as the initial capital for buying and selling currencies for money.

This is the difficult part, as a trader needs to have the training required to know how to participate in the market and make accurate trading decisions. Traders may decide to attend courses, webinars and lectures or may decide to buy or subscribe to reading material for this purpose. Forex trading is not all about theory but is a very practical event, so brokers provide demo trading access for traders who want to practice forex trading and get a feel of what it feels like to trade currencies for money.

Now it is not all so easy and straightforward as it seems to be. There are many pitfalls that a trader must overcome. The number of scam brokers far outweighs the genuine ones, and there are many con artists who capitalize on the naivety of newbie traders to sell junk forex products to them. These junk products include defective expert advisors and trading systems that do not work.

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This section presents free daily trading signals on major currency pairs. Trading signals are based practically on the same market analysis principles as daily technical analysis reviews provided by the Company.

Difference between trading signals and technical analysis

The main difference is that technical analysis suggests explanation of the current market situation, while trading signals only rouse to action with no comments.

Thus, trading signals are designed for those persons who do not have time nor the desire to make themselves familiar with an analytical review and with the analyst`s point of view as well as for those who lack sufficient knowledge required to understand correctly technical analysis and to draw the right conclusion from it.

The given trading signals are provided as a trading tool for informational purposes only. Under no circumstances the given trading signals should be treated as financial advice. Use or misuse of the information on this page specifically exempts FOREX LTD, its affiliates, subsidiaries, agents or shareholders from any liability whatsoever.

Guidance on trading signals

Open a position at the price indicated in «Entry» section in «Strategy» direction with the help of market or pending orders, depending on the current price.

In case when Target 1, Target 2 and Target 3 levels are attained, partial or complete closing of the total position or gradual moving of a Stop Loss to the break-even zone should be made. For instance, when Target 1 is attained, a Stop Loss level should be placed at opening price level and when the price reaches Target 2 a Stop Loss should be moved to Target 1 level.

In the event, when market conditions dramatically change, as it may happen after release of some crucial economic reports, a breakout of the price level indicated in «Stop» section may occur. In this case closing of all unprofitable positions may be accompanied by reopening of positions in the opposite direction with the target levels of «Resistance» and «Support».

Pointers have the following meaning: and – trend direction; – flat/sideway; and – correction.

Options and stop losses

Options and Stop Losses

Question – Options and Stop Losses

Regarding options and stop losses, what’s the best way to establish stop loss protection when option trading? Should it be based on the price of the options or should it be based on the price of the related stock?

Great question, and one that doesn’t get addressed often enough.

First . there are a number of drawbacks to trying to set up a stop loss based on the fluctuating price of an option.

Most options still trade in at least 5 cent increments, and the bid-ask spread for options can also be quite wide. This makes it very difficult to set up any kind of a precise stop loss – it’s kind of like using pliers to remove a splinter instead of tweezers.

Also, because the price of an option is a fraction of the price of the underlying stock, even a small move in an option’s price will represent a significant percentage change.

Second . there’s another factor to keep in mind when considering options and stop losses. Remember that option pricing is more complex than pricing a stock. With a stock, it’s essentially a matter of supply and demand, with some considerable influence thrown in for good measure by the market makers.

But an option has numerous moving parts that all influence its current price. The delta, for example, measures how much an option changes in value in relation to the movement of the underlying stock.

True, supply and demand plays a role, but there are other factors, such as changes in expected volatility or simply the passage of time (theta), that can have a big impact on an option’s price regardless of what the underlying share price is doing.

So if you’re going to try to set up some kind of options and stop loss protection on your trade, I think you’re much better off basing it on the price of the underlying stock, not the price of the option.

But that leads to another question.

Are Stop Losses the Best Way to Exit Losing Trades?

I think it really depends upon the quality of your stop loss. I know there’s a lot of advice out there about how you should always set up a stop loss on a stock at X percentage. Now, there’s often a lot of debate about what the ideal X is – is it 8%? 10%? 15%?

To me, that’s the wrong question. The real question is, should you even have a stop loss based on a percentage move in the stock price in the first place?

If you’re going to be an option trader rather than an option investor. you’re going to have be proficient to some degree at technical analysis.

Do you have to be a member of Mensa and an MIT graduate? No – but you do have to recognize that trading is a short term strategy based on pattern recognition and predicting the most likely aggregate near term behavior of other traders.

So whether you use moving averages or trend lines or something else, you need to clearly identify in your mind the areas of support and resistance in an underlying stock before you ever open an option trade on it.

And then you just ask yourself one simple question: what price would the stock have to trade to or close at to persuade me that the stock’s support (or resistance if you’re trading the other way) had convincingly been broken?

If and when the stock hits that price – that’s when you should close your trade. The most effective method of options and stop losses is to know beforehand when you would close the trade and why .

An Option Trading Alternative

Finally, if all this seems a complex, challenging, pain in the ass way to make money. that’s because it is.

Well, depending on your personality, that is. Some people are absolutely made for complex or aggressive option trading strategies. Just as some people are total conservative, boring, cautious investors.

Myself, I’m somewhere in between. That’s why I absolutely love Leveraged Investing.

For me, it’s the best of both worlds – the excitement and sophistication of using options with the stability and Warren Buffett style track record of long term investing in high quality companies.

What it really comes down to, of course, is finding the trading or investing style that really matches your own personality.

Best of luck to you –

Binary options brokers which accept debit cards

Binary Options Brokers which Accept Debit Cards

Binary Options Brokers which Accept Debit Cards

1. Why use a Debit Card?

Possibly the most popular method to transfer money into an out of binary options trading account is the usage of debit cards. Most professional traders prefer this option because of its speed, security and reliability. For instance, funds can be credited to your account almost instantaneously. One of the major advantages of this technique is that you will be withdrawing funds straight from your own bank account.

As you will therefore be trading your own money; you will, no doubt, be more careful of the size of your investments by not risking more than you can comfortably afford. This particular benefit of debit cards starkly contrasts with those associated with credit cards which could readily seduced into adopting a more ‘gung-ho’ approach by depositing larger sums of borrowed money. You must strive to avoid such practices as you could quickly engulf yourself in serious debt if you continuously implemented such a strategy. Funding your binary options trading account using a debit card can prevent you from falling into such a trap.

In addition, several debit card payment processors, such as Visa, have recently instigated enhanced security systems that will guarantee the safety of all your transactions from identity theft and fraud. Consequently, many premier binary options brokers have negotiated special arrangements with major debit card providers ensuring that you will now obtain the most streamlined services possible.

Another important advantage of using a debit card as opposed to a credit card is that the former will not incur any interest charges. As the latter will definitely do so, you will experience much greater difficulty acquiring steady profits if you opt for this more expensive choice. For instance, even if you win after depositing funds by deploying a credit card; the interest charged with slice deeply into your profits. Alternatively, you will have total access to all your binary options winnings if you make investments using a debit card.

2. How to locate Brokers Supporting Debit Cards

You will discover that the majority of binary options brokers support transactions using debit cards. Possibly the best method of confirming whether those brokers, that attract your attention, satisfy this important stipulation is to read reviews on each one. You can locate such material by undertaking an appropriate internet search containing the name of your chosen Broker.

A major development that has recently occurred which has been definitely boosted the image and integrity of the binary options industry was the announcement by Visa that it was permitting the usage of its cards to deposit and withdraw funds from binary options accounts. As a direct result of this important event, the number of brokers now accepting debit cards, as one of their preferred methods for processing money electronically, has dramatically increased.

3. Binary options Brokers that accept Debit Cards

Here is a list of brokers that support this important payment processing option.

StockPair is one of the most inventive binary option brokers existing on the binary options market today. The company was created in 2020 and it is located in Cyprus. Nextrade Worldwide Ltd operates the StockPair trading platform which provides real-time and accurate pricing; innovative visual facilities; is 100% web-based and is renowned for being very user-friendly. StockPair supports as many as six international languages including English, Spanish, Italian, French, Dutch and Arabic.

AnyOption is a primary binary option broker which created the original 100% web-based platform during the latter part of 2008. Consequently, this broker is deemed to be a pioneer in this relatively new business sector.

Unlike many of its rivals, AnyOption presents a frank and honest approach to binary options trading. For example, this broker does not promote lavish and unsustainable bonuses. In contrast, Anyoption aims to provide a straight-forward environment allowing its users to deposit and begin trading with minimum fuss. In fact, many professions evaluate AnyOptions conventional attitude as the corner-stone for its success.

This broker has certainly attained an enviable reputation since its inception for exhibiting high transparency and integrity. This inspiring achievement is mainly due to 24Options acquiring the coveted status of full regulation. This professional image is boosted even further by a high-quality customer service and a user-friendly trading platform.

Since its launch during the latter part of 2009, 24Options has experienced increasing popularity which has specifically emulated from its exclusive and groundbreaking 100% web-based trading platform. This remarkable tool has been created to supply you with the optimum facilities at the correct time in compliance with ever-evolving market conditions.

Wellstrade®fees

Some foreign governments impose a fee on purchases and sales of securities for companies incorporated in their countries. This fee is passed through from the foreign government to the client. If this fee is charged, the amount will be displayed on the trade confirmation.

Transaction fee applies per transaction (buy or sell). You can choose to buy or sell shares directly from the fund itself or its principal underwriter or distributor without paying a fee to Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC.

Termination Fee applies to full distribution of Traditional, Roth, SEP, and SIMPLE IRAs; fee is waived for clients over age 70? or accounts terminated due to death or disability.

Safekeeping fee is only charged on those securities eligible to be held in street name.

Deposit / Withdrawal at Custodian is the process of transferring shares between broker / dealer and the security issuer’s transfer agent. This fee applies only to transactions delivering shares from Wells Fargo Advisors to the custodian.

The minimum balance fee will be based upon the accounts in your WellsTrade household on June 30, 2020. If the total asset value of all your accounts is less than $5,000, a $25 fee will be charged to one account in September 2020. This fee will be waived for WellsTrade accounts linked to a Wells Fargo PMA ® Package by June 30 of each year, regardless of the PMA Package balance. The PMA Package is free of the $30 monthly service fee for each month that one of the requirements in statement-ending combined balances is met: $25,000 or more in qualifying linked bank deposit accounts (checking, savings, time accounts (CDs), FDIC-insured IRAs) or $50,000 or more in any combination of qualifying linked banking, brokerage (available through Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC), and credit balances (including 10% of mortgage balances, certain mortgages not eligible). Deposit products, including PMA Premier Checking account, offered by Wells Fargo Bank, N. A. Member FDIC.

Your total household value includes all assets listed in your WellsTrade account statements, except for those shown under the “Other Assets/Liabilities” section. The grouping of accounts into a household is based on account eligibility and family relationships such as children, parents, domestic partners and others. Certain accounts cannot be included in a household. Please call us at 1-800-TRADERS for more information and to determine whether all eligible accounts have been included in your household. It is your responsibility to ensure that all eligible accounts are included in your household.

WellsTrade ® accounts are available through Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC (member SIPC ), a registered broker-dealer and a separate non-bank affiliate of Wells Fargo Company.

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Trade commission-free for 60 days + get up to $600*

Before investing in an ETF, be sure to carefully consider the funds objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For a prospectus containing this and other important information, please contact a Client Services representative. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

All investments involve risks including loss of principal invested. Past performance of a security does not guarantee future results or success.

Market volatility, volume and system availability may delay account access and trade executions.

TD Ameritrade does not charge platform, maintenance, or inactivity fees. Commissions, service fees and exception fees still apply. Please review our commission and brokerage fees for details.

Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors as the special risks inherent to options trading may expose investors to potentially rapid and substantial losses. Options trading privileges subject to TD Ameritrade review and approval. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before investing in options before investing in options.

Waiver of NASDAQ Level II and Streaming News subscription fees applies to non-professional clients only. Access to real-time market data is conditioned on acceptance of exchange agreements. Professional access differs and subscription fees may apply. For details, see our commission and brokerage fees listing.

*Offer valid for one new Individual, Joint or IRA TD Ameritrade account opened by 12/31/2020 and funded within 60 days of account opening with $3,000 or more. To receive $100 bonus, account must be funded with $25,000 or more within 60 days of account opening. To receive $300 bonus, account must be funded with $100,000 or more within 60 days of account opening. To receive $600 bonus, account must be funded with $250,000 or more within 60 days of account opening. Offer is not transferable and not valid with internal transfers, accounts using the Amerivest service, TD Ameritrade Institutional accounts, current TD Ameritrade accounts or with other offers. Qualified commission-free Internet equity, ETF or options orders will be limited to a maximum of 500 and must execute within 60 days of account funding. Contract, exercise, and assignment fees still apply. Limit one offer per client. Account value of the qualifying account must remain equal to, or greater than, the value after the net deposit was made (minus any losses due to trading or market volatility or margin debit balances) for 12 months, or TD Ameritrade may charge the account for the cost of the offer at its sole discretion. TD Ameritrade reserves the right to restrict or revoke this offer at any time. This is not an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where we are not authorized to do business. Please allow 3-5 business days for any cash deposits to post to account. Taxes related to TD Ameritrade offers are your responsibility. Retail values totaling $600 or more during the calendar year will be included in your consolidated Form 1099. Please consult a legal or tax advisor for the most recent changes to the U. S. tax code and for rollover eligibility rules (Offer Code: 220).

Taxes related to TD Ameritrade offers are your responsibility. Retail values totaling $600 or more during the calendar year will be included in your consolidated Form 1099.

Trades executed in multiple lots on the same day are charged a single commission. Trades partially executed over multiple trading days are subject to commission charges for each trading day.

Execution price, speed and liquidity are affected by many factors, including market volatility, size and type of order and available market centers.

Third-party research and tools are obtained from companies not affiliated with TD Ameritrade, and are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, TD Ameritrade does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use. Please consult other sources of information and consider your individual financial position and goals before making an independent investment decision. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

TD Ameritrade was evaluated against 17 others in the 2020 Barrons Online Broker Review, March 7, 2020, and was awarded the highest star rating (4.5) overall (shared with 2 others). The firm was ranked 1st in the categories “Range of Offerings”, “Research Amenities”, “Customer Service Education”, “Long-Term Investing”, and Novices.” TD Ameritrade was also awarded the highest star ratings (4.5) in “Best for Options Traders” (shared with 2 others) and (4) in “Best for In-Person Service” (shared with 4 others). Also received 4 stars in “Best for Frequent Traders”. Star ratings are out of a possible 5. Barrons is a trademark of Dow Jones. L. P. All rights reserved. Read full article .

TD Ameritrade, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC. This is not an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where we are not authorized to do business. TD Ameritrade is a trademark jointly owned by TD Ameritrade IP Company, Inc. and The Toronto-Dominion Bank. © 2020 TD Ameritrade IP Company, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.

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As of 2:57pm EDT 12/14/14 Compact view

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Forex trading strategies wikipedia-the best binary options trading platform

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The essentials of retail forex broker models

The Essentials of Retail Forex Broker Models | How They Work and Finding the Good Guys

The sell side of the retail Forex industry can be as opaque as the market itself, and few individual traders actually have a clue about how they are being quoted, if their trade is going out to market, and a slew of other concerns that escapes common knowledge. Today we are going to cover retail broker models, common terminology and essentially everything that many brokers dont want you to know. Most of the articles found on the internet, well, most retail traders wont even look at. That is why Im posting it here, to hopefully better educate the masses and shed some light on a typically dark subject matter. To some of you, this is nothing new, but to others, I hope to better inform.

Transaction costs are a huge concern for us because it is essentially money down the tubes and most of the time, for no reason whatsoever. This is the main reason we largely abandoned a major ECN and went with another that does not attempt to add costs on top of our preexisting PB fees.

The bottom line is that no trader should be paying anything more than around a pip on a EUR/USD during any standard trading session. And yes, on ECN platforms, that includes commission. If this is the case on your platform, then you are essentially donating money to your broker. Again, this is your hard-earned money simply being handed over to someone else, one little trade at a time. This cost can of course be justified if you are getting some serious analysis or tools in return, but most of the time this is not the case and these tools can be acquired elsewhere for much less.

Standard Retail Broker Models and Why Everyone Hates Them

Retail brokers typically fall into several model categories, with the larger ones using a combination of these in order to cater to more sophisticated clients. An example would be 70% B-Model, 20% A-Model and 10% C-Model being used within one firm. These are all industry terms and nothing new. Again, I am simply just bringing these into the light. So lets talk about these models one by one:

A-Model: In an A-Model, a broker profits from spread only. Trades are passed out to market via straight through processing to a bank or an ECN through a bank. You will never hear me recommend trading through any platform that does not strictly follow an A-Model. Trade matching technology is simply too good and accessible these days to have to deal with anything less. In addition to better execution (which is an understatement), as a client, you dont have to deal with any of the more common trading restrictions seen elsewhere.

B-Model: The most common, for a reason. One look at a retail brokers client book and the profitability results are astoundingly clear: it makes much more sense to hedge, or trade against your clients positions as opposed to simply passing them out to market and capturing spread. Additionally, a lot more flexibility is given to the broker which in most cases, is a conflict of interest with the client (more on this below). Recent CFTC reports indicate that approximately 70-80% of retail client volume is unprofitable. Most retail brokers follow a B-Model simply because it is so lucrative to do so. The largest brokers here in the US have historically followed a B-Model with good results (understatement of the century). For clients, B-Models are generally frowned upon, yet encouraged by brokers with the argument that better flexibility is afforded to them. The major cause of concern is of course the conflict of interest and now long history of unethical practices exercised by brokers under this model.

C-Model: More obscure and essentially anything that does not fall into the first 2 categories. C-Models consist of a range of strategies designed to typically balance extracted profit for a broker and client satisfaction.

Retail brokers will pull liquidity from any number of major destinations. In the early days of retail FX, the only route to go was to set up a relationship with a bank, or several banks, and pool that liquidity onto their platforms. The broker could then take their route of choice, which usually entailed market making. Today, a number of different methods may be used including turnkey solutions with established sources of liquidity or connecting directly with an institutional ECN. Regardless, a banks services are still needed in order to hold the account and facilitate a number of operational functions.

Liquidity aggregation is getting more and more accessible these days, with a number of market participants (funds, brokers, you name it) using platforms such as MarketFactory to direct multiple trading venues into one platform on the client side. These technology improvements allow further flexibility for brokers to expand their horizons and offer better conditions for traders of all sizes. Ultimately, the market is improving, transparency gaining traction, and retail traders have more options than ever.

As it stands today, retail brokers will access liquidity by any number of different means:

Direct bank relationships: Single bank platforms or other pass through systems that allow retail FX brokers access to a wider pool of liquidity.

ECNs: A relationship with a larger bank is usually required as well due to the brokers lack of size, thus credit.

3rd party aggregators or all in one solutions: These businesses essentially act as a turnkey solution for everything when it comes to starting an FX brokerage business. Leverate is a prime example. Companies go to these types of businesses for simplicity and negotiation muscle when it comes to acquiring liquidity for their shop.

And Now for Some Badly Needed Explanation of Terms:

ECN: Electronic Communication Network. ECNs have risen in volume substantially over the years and will likely continue to do so, as they have several major benefits:

Direct access to liquidity: It is you and the bank / another trader / institution, whoever wants to make a price.

Deep liquidity: Prices are abundant on the majors and can generally serve most of the more demanding clients.

Limit Book Access: Orders are out in the open. Conventions do indeed vary from ECN to ECN.

Superior execution: Due mainly to the above. Note that some platforms will still allow for last look, giving the counterparty the upper advantage on your trade.

Retail brokers commonly advertise ECN platforms, but this does not mean that they are a true ECN. A true ECN allows direct access to the interbank market, where the broker charges you a commission on top of your spread, which even can commonly be inverted. Many ECNs labeled in the retail world still pose risk to the client. These are not true ECNs but usually a bridge of some sort where spreads are marked up and inventory risk for the broker is still a concern. Major institutional ECNs include Currenex, FXAll, Hotspot, LMAX, etc.

An ECN broker will allow you to trade directly with other participants in the marketplace. You are literally trading on the ECN with the rest of the world, consisting of banks, hedge funds, other individual traders like you, etc. Be aware that some ECNs are only as good as the platform you are using, so ensure you picky in terms of what software you choose to use.

Market Maker: A market maker typically does several things:

Creates a price for you, the client. These prices are most oftentimes representative of a true market price and in some cases, your trade will never even leave the retail firm. The market maker will take the other side of your position, sometimes determining whether or not you are an A or B client. If you are an A client, in some cases your trade will be routed out to market, essentially making you someone elses problem. This can still cause major issues in execution, however, as your trade is jumping a few servers and usually old technology to make it happen. If you are a B-client, the broker essentially has confidence that at some point, you will wipe yourself out and fork over your money to them.

The vast majority of retail forex brokers follow some sort of market making model. It is still very dominant and allows them the pure flexibility of doing any number of different things, which most people with half an ounce of common sense would consider unethical. Delaying execution, utilizing trading restrictions and popping spreads around stop losses so they are executed are just a few examples of some of the horrendous things these firms are capable of doing. And yes, some of the largest shops will do this. Plainly speaking, it is difficult for some regulatory agencies to detect some of this behavior, such as spread popping. If you want to avoid any of these things then simply stay away from this model. Regulatory agencies will only catch so much, but they are getting better at doing so.

Much of the above described activity is simply illegal in most jurisdictions, but that has not stopped many brokers from doing it. Those who have been caught are usually done by a well-organized regulatory entity, such as the NFA.

The much, much greater majority of brokers who find themselves in trouble do so because they are playing around with the market making model. Granted, not all market makers are bad, but the possibility for them to be is much, much greater than those following an A-Model.

Retail traders are becoming more savvy to these tactics, of course, and opting against these types of subpar trading conditions. So it is no surprise that a slew of other services are offered by brokers in order to entice newer traders to come on board.

DMA: Direct Market Access. Just as the name implies. You, the trader, has direct access to the interbank market. This entails you accepting, or if allowed, making a price with any number of counterparties available on the platform. The term is commonly used in conjunction with an ECN model.

STP Straight Through Processing. Another term that gets tossed around quite a bit, which gives some indication, but not all, as to what model your broker is following. Straight through processing implies that your trade is passed through the broker, direct to their liquidity provider(s). The most common way of distinguishing an STP broker from an ECN broker is that an STP broker passes your trade directly to banks in which they have a relationship. An ECN broker will pass your trades to a true ECN, where you have complete access to a range of participants.

The broker will inflate the spread in order to profit from your transaction turnover and make up for the lack of B-Model being employed on your account. They want you to be profitable so that you continue to rack in commissions, but make it extremely hard to do with such high costs. Some of these markups are extraordinary, however, and the concept is laughable. Essentially you are being charged for the courtesy of the broker not messing with your trade execution.

Some STPs are certainly more reasonable and offer better markups, or lack thereof. To my knowledge not one reasonable STP exists here in the United States that will offer fair costs and pure execution without restrictions, such as severely inflating spreads, etc. STP is still limited, however, in the sense that someone essentially has an upper advantage over you, to state it in general terms.

No Dealing Desk: An overused term that gives vague indication as to what the broker is actually doing with your trade, though generally refers to some form of STP. This is thought to imply that the broker is directly following a pass through system, though manipulation with conditions is certainly still possible.

Signs of a Market Maker or Fake or Quasi ECN aka STP

Requotes on any trade. On a true ECN you get a price and take it or leave it.

Prohibit any type of trading such as scalping.

Asymmetrical slippage. This an illegal practice here in the US (and abroad I am sure) where the broker does not give you the benefit of the doubt should slippage be in your favor, yet make you suffer the loss if slippage is against the intended direction of your trade.

Hide depth of book. Trade volumes should be visible across the platform.

Set freeze levels. Freeze levels are minimum distances for stop loss or take profit orders.

This list is primarily geared towards market makers, many of which have conducted themselves in manners which, well, lets say I highly disapprove of from an ethical standpoint.

Fake ECNs or other forms of STP I do not consider always bad, but I dont consider them the best, either. For most retail traders, they will do the job yet be aware that you are still likely to face restrictions not seen by those trading on a true ECN platform.

Some people prefer STP over ECNs in terms of execution speed, as I have heard it is claimed to be better. The bottom line is that when you are getting this technical you have entered a world where much of our discussion here becomes irrelevant.

As previously stated, most brokers offer some form of direct market access, yet they require you to be a Pro client, or whatever naming convention they use, in order to get this kind of access. This typically refers to large deposits or large turnover. As this market continues to evolve, more and more brokers are popping up and filling the void in order to grant such access at a very basic level.

The problem tends to arise with white label solutions, usually delivered by firms like Integral or Currenex, which can demand higher requirements. Others have brokered deals where the aggregate volume gets routed in order to compensate. Currenex Standard and Viking, and platforms like it, are being offered to retail clients with large deposits through many brokers.

LMAX is a prime example of a new kind of ECN designed to squash the old retail market making model. For anyone based outside of the US, accounts can be funded with as little as $1,000 through an introducing broker.

For the rest, an ECN is an ECN. Institutional or retail, you still need someone to hold your money and do your paperwork/settlement. Thats where your broker steps in, and things tend to get a little murky. Most brokers will charge a simple commission based on some form of tiered volume schedule in order to make money on your trades. Others like to fiddle with the volume. Personally, I dont mind paying a commission for the lack of conflict of interest.

As usual, US clients have somewhat of an anvil tied around their necks due to the indirect effects of recent regulatory actions. Like the largest banks after the financial crisis, most of the smaller FCMs ended up consolidating with certain houses in order to meet a number of regulatory requirements. Additionally, costs vs. profit became exceedingly slim, forcing many UK-based firms to hand over their U. S. books to these other U. S.-based brokers with already larger ones.

Unfortunately, most of these larger brokers historically utilize unwavering B-Models unless you walk in the door with $10,000-$20,000 and access a Pro account, or face an uphill battle against inflated spreads on an STP model. As a result, setting up a penny practice account on an institutional grade execution platform is far from the easiest bet. If you are able to do this, then no questions asked, pay the commission and get the dirt cheap spread. Also, I recommend going with a company that has a leg in the institutional world (the real one, not wannabes) as opposed to what is stated on their website.

Transaction cost comes first. Save your money. Those little, incremental amounts add up substantially over time. Experienced traders know this, newer traders see it more of a non-issue. It is a HUGE issue. Do your homework. Sites like fxintel/ can help steer you in the right direction. And no, demo spreads can be very different from live spreads.

Do a due diligence/background check to ensure that no massive red flags have risen in history. For clients based in the US, nfa. futures/basicnet/ is the place to go. Australia, this way please: asic. gov. au/asic/asic. nsf/byheadline/Introduction+to+ASIC+Connect? openDocument and the UK, right here: fsa. gov. uk/register/home. do. For firms based in any other countries, I simply dont have enough experience dealing, but I can say that these 3 have some of the higher regulatory standards in the world.

For the NFA, simply type in the name of the firm, hit GO, and look in the Regulatory Actions box. Have fun.

Also, if you cant find dirt on a firm in one country, they might be registered in another as well. Stay clean. Thats my best advice.

Find out what kind of model your broker is using. Again, many larger brokers now offer A-Models in addition to their traditional B-Models. You want to get as close to the market as possible and with as little interference necessary, and at a reasonable cost. If they refuse to tell you, then 99% of time they are B-Model. An A-Model broker would have zero problem disclosing information about what happens to your trades.

Most people slip when they call a broker, ask if they trade against client positions, and are given the ring-a-round to the no dealing desk model where they end up being eaten alive by either poor technology or inflated costs. So be careful. Just because a regulatory agency is watching your broker does not mean they are up to no good. Just a couple weeks ago, the FSA went after one of the largest retail brokers in the world because of asymmetrical price slippage. This broker has been in business for years and yet such conduct is still prevalent. So do your homework. The landscape is changing and people are becoming wiser. There is no need to settle for less.

Other Final Considerations

Stay away from any form of fixed spreads. These simply dont help. The broker is either a market maker or using an STP that will work against you when you need it the most.

No platform is perfect, whether they be a market maker, STP or ECN. Again, research .

Find the biggest pool of liquidity you can. A whole world opens up to you. Want to trade spikes? No problem. Want a fill in a few milliseconds? No problem. More liquidity typically translates to lower spreads and while the flexibility might not be needed today, it likely will in the long run.

If you intend on investing anything greater than 10-20k, your options open up substantially. Use them.

Be smart. Choosing a proper broker should not be a rush decision or one based on tools, signals, or any other type of vanity that is essentially the FX worlds version of a free buffet at a casino. Its your money. Keep it safe.

Please post any comments below but all I ask is that you take it easy with the names. This article is meant to inform, not bash others. Thank you.

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Keep apersonal option trading journal

Keep a Personal Option Trading Journal

Option Trading Tip #4 0f 4

Learn From Each Option Trade

Option Trading Tip #4 – Keeping a Personal Option Trading Journal – may be the most challenging of the four tips because, in a way, it requires the most discipline.

A personal trading journal? Really? Ugh!

That’s pretty much what my own reaction used to be. Don’t get me wrong – I always kept great records when it came to the details of my individual trades. And my personal spreadsheets were a joy to create and a source of pride.

But what I always resisted was putting together and including comprehensive notes related to the trades – such as my rationale for initiating the trade, what this strike price, why that expiration date, what my concerns were, what adjustments would I consider if the underlying stock did this or that, and any other number of factors and considerations that was relevant to each specific trade.

Why I Started Keeping an Option Trading Journal

In a way, I stumbled upon the power and benefits of maintaining a trading journal when I began sharing the details of my personal trades on a weekly basis with the Leveraged Investing Community.

It’s one thing for me to TELL you everything I know about using options to acquire high quality businesses at heavily discounted prices, or to generate high yield income on low risk stocks.

But it’s another thing altogether if I SHOW you what I’m talking about with current real world examples.

Showing my own option trading journal has been a terrific – not to mention popular – teaching tool and perk of the Leveraged Investing Club.

Because members of the Leveraged Investing Club can not only look over my shoulder and watch how I implement the principles of Leveraged Investing. But they can also learn from my mistakes when I sometimes fail to follow my own advice from time to to me.

Benefits of a Trading Journal

What I found most surprising was that this “teaching tool” designed to help other traders with their own results actually made me a better trader and investor.

And the quicker to begin keeping detailed records, notes, and other thoughts about each one of your own trades, the sooner you’ll discover the same thing for yourself.

You’ll become a better trader and investor because you’ll be a “deeper” trader and investor.

Trading AND Investing.

The objective with Leveraged Investing is to take the best qualities of trading and investing and combine them into a structurally advantaged approach or method to build real and lasting wealth in the stock market at an accelerated rate.

The act of articulating your thoughts will not only clarify those thoughts – it will also lead to deeper insights and epiphanies you otherwise never would have experienced.

Creating Your Own Option Trading Journal

How you go about creating and maintaining your own personal trading journal is entirely up to you, of course. You should customize it so that it’s comfortable and works for you. And it can be as simple or as elaborate as you prefer.

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Currency exchange – at Heathrow?

We will be travelling to the UK from Israel and would like to know what is the wisest place to exchange Israeli Shekels for Pounds Sterling? We planned to arrive with enough for cabfare/underground tix, and then exchange cash when we arrive.

Is this wise? Is is best to exchange in the airport? We are arriving in Heathrow in late afternoon.

Is it better to just use credit cards for most transactions? Are MasterCard and/or Visa widely accepted?

Thank you in advance for your help.

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Warren buffett investment strategy

Warren Buffett Investment Strategy

The Warren Buffett investment strategy can be described in terms of risk, demand for a margin of safety, patience, and investing with a strong conviction:

Warren Buffett Quotes on Risk

Warren Buffett defines risk as ‘paying more than what a business would prove to be worth’. The way to mitigate this risk is to find companies whose selling stock prices afford them a significant margin of safety. The phrase Margin of Safety (on which Seth Klarman wrote a famous book) best describes Warren Buffetts investment approach. The margin of safety needs to be large enough such that there can be a good margin allowing for error.

Warren Buffett Quotes on Patience

Warren Buffett likes to cite a core concept he learned from his mentor Benjamin Graham – markets may be seen as voting machines in the short run where popular opinion wins; in the long run, however, markets are weighing machines that reflect the intrinsic value of the business. Thus, although the market may be blind to the success of a business in the short run, it will eventually validate it.

Like other fund managers who have a long investment horizon, Buffett realizes that what is important is not the speed at which the market recognizes the success of a business. Rather, it may be an advantage to have the market take a long time to recognize the business’s success – as the investor then has more opportunities to buy the undervalued business. What is crucial, however, is whether the intrinsic value of the business is increasing at a pace that is satisfactory. This is because that is what will determine the success of the investment over the long run.

Warren Buffett Quotes on Diversification

Warren Buffett believes that it is most important to invest with a strong conviction. Diversification is a foolish idea if it means buying with low conviction. This is an important part of the Warren Buffett investment strategy. For example, when the price of Coca-Cola fell to levels that he found very attractive in 1998, Buffett invested a quarter of Berkshire’s market value into Coca-Cola.

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Forex Market: USD/RUB daily trading forecast

October 9, 2020 8:13 am

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/RUB within the range of 61.275-62.895. The pair closed at 61.400, falling 0.73% on a daily basis, while marking a fourth straight trading day of losses. The daily low has been the lowest level since July 31st, when the cross registered a low of 59.380.

At 8:04 GMT today USD/RUB was gaining 0.27% for the day to trade at 61.486. The pair touched a daily high at 61.875 at 6:10 GMT, overshooting the range resistance level (R3). In case the pair sees further downside and a break below 60.000, the July 31st low may serve as a level of support.

Today the cross may be influenced by a number of macroeconomic reports as listed below.

Export and import prices

The index of export prices probably fell for a fourth consecutive month in September, going down 0.2%, according to expectations. In August export prices dropped 1.4% compared to a month ago, or at the steepest rate since January 2020, when a 1.9% slump was registered. A drop in export prices implies higher demand in a medium term, while an increase suggests the opposite effect.

At the same time, the index of import prices probably dropped for a fourth month in a row in September as well, dipping 0.5%, according to the median forecast by analysts. In August import prices were 1.8% lower compared to a month ago, which has been the sharpest decline since January 2020. Back then a 3.1% plunge was registered. An increase in import prices implies potentially higher rate of consumer inflation in the country, while a decrease suggests the opposite effect.

The US Department of Labor is to release the official data at 12:30 GMT.

FOMC Minutes reveal concerns over global economic conditions

The Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s September policy meeting showed officials were concerned that recent global macroeconomic conditions may curb economic activity in the United States.

According to excerpts from the Minutes: “In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, members judged that information received since the FOMC met in July indicated that economic activity was expanding at a moderate pace. Although net exports remained soft, economic growth was broadly based. Members noted that recent global and financial market developments might restrain economic activity somewhat as a result of the higher level of the dollar and possible effects of slower economic growth in China and in a number of emerging market and commodity-producing economies.”

“In assessing whether economic conditions had improved sufficiently to initiate a firming in the stance of policy, many members said that the improvement in labor market conditions met or would soon meet one of the Committee’s criteria for beginning policy normalization. But some indicated that their confidence that inflation would gradually return to the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term had not increased, in large part because recent global economic and financial developments had imparted some restraint to the economic outlook and placed further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.”

“The Committee agreed to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and to reaffirm in its postmeeting statement that the Committee’s decision about how long to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate would depend on its assessment of actual and expected progress toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.”

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/RUB are presented as follows:

R3 (range resistance) – 61.846

R4 (range breakout) – 62.291

Forex Market: USD/ZAR daily trading forecast

November 28, 2020 9:28 am

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/ZAR within the range of 10.9292-10.9884. The pair closed at 10.9542, gaining 0.13% on a daily basis.

At 9:26 GMT today USD/ZAR was up 0.66% for the day to trade at 11.0341. The pair broke the first and the second key daily resistance levels and touched a daily high at 11.0439.

Balance of trade

The deficit on South Africas balance of trade probably widened to ZAR 6.0 billion in October, according to expectations, from a deficit figure of ZAR 2.91 billion in September. The latter has been the smallest trade gap since June, as exports to Europe and America rose. Total exports expanded 18.2% to ZAR 90.79 billion in September compared August. Sales of precious metals and stones marked the highest increase (44.9%), followed by mineral products (24.3%). Exports to the Americas were up 26.6%, sales to Europe grew 25.2%, while those to African countries rose 16.3%. Total value of imports rose at a pace of 0.2% to ZAR 93.71 billion in September. The cumulative deficit during the current year is at the amount of ZAR 73.74 billion, compared to ZAR 63.07 billion in 2020, according to the report by the South African Revenue Service.

The trade balance The difference between the monetary value of a country’s exports and imports for a period of time. A positive value is knows as trade surplus and a negative balance is referred to as trade deficit . Debit items include imports, domestic spending and investments abroad and foreign aid. The credit side of the balance consists of exports, foreign spending and investing in the domestic economy. as an indicator, measures the difference in value between a nation’s exported and imported goods and services during the reported period. It reflects the net export of goods and services, or one of the components to form the countrys Gross Domestic Product. Generally, exports reflect economic growth, while imports indicate strength of domestic demand. In case the trade balance The difference between the monetary value of a country’s exports and imports for a period of time. A positive value is knows as trade surplus and a negative balance is referred to as trade deficit . Debit items include imports, domestic spending and investments abroad and foreign aid. The credit side of the balance consists of exports, foreign spending and investing in the domestic economy. deficit widened more than anticipated, this would have a bearish effect on the rand. The South African Revenue Service is expected to release the official trade data at 12:00 GMT.

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 10.9573. In case USD/ZAR manages to breach the first resistance level at 10.9853, it will probably continue up to test 11.0165. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 11.0445.

If USD/ZAR manages to breach the first key support at 10.9261, it will probably continue to slide and test 10.8981. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 10.8669.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 10.8825, M2 – 10.9121, M3 – 10.9417, M4 – 10.9713, M5 – 11.0009, M6 – 11.0305.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 11.0392. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 11.1734, R2 – 11.2764, R3 – 11.4106. The three key support levels are: S1 – 10.9362, S2 – 10.8020, S3 – 10.6990.

Forex Market: USD/ZAR daily forecast

July 28, 2020 6:39 am

During Friday’s trading session USD/ZAR traded within the range of 10.4864-10.5482 and closed at 10.5107, losing 0.17% for the day.

At 6:32 GMT today USD/ZAR was losing 0.10% for the day to trade at 10.5005. The pair touched a daily low at 10.4880 at 3:00 GMT.

The index of pending home sales Created by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Represents the activity in the real estate sector. Tracks sales of single-family houses and apartment buildings in which a contract was signed, but the deal was not yet closed. It usually takes one to two months to close a sale after the contract was signed. It is a leading indicator as housing demand brings greater insight for investors into the current state of the economy. Increased housing demand shows either improved financial status, or improved confidence that one can pay out his mortgage. It is a wide national excerpt and is based on around 20% of the real estate transactions. Calculated on a monthly basis. in the United States probably rose 0.4% during June compared to May, according to the median forecast by experts. In May the indicator registered a third consecutive month of gains and also reached its highest level in the past eight months, rising 6.1%. Low mortgage rates, increasing number of homes for sale and higher employment in the country probably contributed to higher activity in the housing sector.

When a sales contract is accepted for a property, it is recorded as a pending home sale. As an indicator the index provides information on the number of future home sales, which are in the pipeline. It gathers data from real estate agents and brokers at the point of a sale of contract and is currently the most accurate indicator regarding US housing sector. It samples over 20% of the market. In addition, over 80% of pending house sales are converted to actual home sales within 2 or 3 months. Therefore, this index has a predictive value about actual home sales.

Although there are some cancellations, there are not enough for the data to be skewed one way or another. The base value of the index is equal to 100, while the base year is 2001, when there has been a high level of home sales.

The National Association of Realtor’s (NAR) will release the official index value at 14:00 GMT on Monday (July 28th). In case pending home sales Created by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Represents the activity in the real estate sector. Tracks sales of single-family houses and apartment buildings in which a contract was signed, but the deal was not yet closed. It usually takes one to two months to close a sale after the contract was signed. It is a leading indicator as housing demand brings greater insight for investors into the current state of the economy. Increased housing demand shows either improved financial status, or improved confidence that one can pay out his mortgage. It is a wide national excerpt and is based on around 20% of the real estate transactions. Calculated on a monthly basis. increased more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on the greenback.

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 10.5151. In case USD/ZAR manages to breach the first resistance level at 10.5438, it will probably continue up to test 10.5769. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 10.6056.

If USD/ZAR manages to breach the first key support at 10.4818, it will probably continue to slide and test 10.4533. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 10.4202.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 10.5477. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 10.6297, R2 10.7487, R3 10.8307. The three key support levels are: S1 10.4287, S2 10.3467, S3 10.2277.

Forex Market: USD/ZAR daily trading outlook

November 12, 2020 9:49 am

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/ZAR within the range of 11.3365-11.2030. The pair closed at 11.2200, shedding 0.48% on a daily basis.

At 9:46 GMT today USD/ZAR was up 0.21% for the day to trade at 11.2441. The pair held in a daily range of 11.2073-11.2508.

The US Census Bureau is expected to report at 15:00 GMT that US wholesale inventories An indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers. It provides an overview about current tendencies in the wholesale sector, which may project to the overall economy. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the economy as a standstill may be at hand. A lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish because it implies economic activity. Calculated on a monthly basis with a delay of 2 months (e. g. data for May is published in July). expanded by 0.4% on a monthly basis in September, following a 0.7% gain in August. If confirmed, this would be the 15th straight month of expansion.

This indicator represents the change in stockpiles of unsold goods held by wholesalers. Generally speaking, an inventory pileup signifies slowing sales and thus an economic slowdown, while a lower inventory level points to a more robust growth.

A separate report by the Mortgage Bankers Association is projected to show that mortgage applications fell by 0.2% last week, following a 2.6% decline during the preceding five-day period and a 6.6% drop in the week before. This indicator measure the change in the number of new applications for mortgages backed by the MBA during the respective week.

Retail sales Tracks the changes in retail sales’ volumes. Information is gathered through a research including big retailers and an excerpt for the smaller ones. Higher volumes mean higher consumer demand, increased production and economic growth. Calculated both on a monthly and annual basis. in South Africa probably rose at the annualized pace of 2.2% in September, Statistics South Africa is expected to report at 11:00 GMT, following a 2.1% gain in August. Month-on-month, sales on the retail level are projected to have risen by 0.3% after gaining 0.6% in the preceding month.

The retail sales Tracks the changes in retail sales’ volumes. Information is gathered through a research including big retailers and an excerpt for the smaller ones. Higher volumes mean higher consumer demand, increased production and economic growth. Calculated both on a monthly and annual basis. index provides key information in regard to consumer spending Tracks the amount of inflation-adjusted expenditures made by households. Includes money spent for both durable goods (TVs, washing machines etc.) and non-durable goods (food). Gives a short-term insight into consumer confidence and behavior. It is also referred to as consumption and is calculated both on a monthly and annual basis. trend in a shorter term. Statistics South Africa conducts a monthly survey of the retail trade industry, encompassing retail enterprises. This survey is based on a sample drawn from the 2004 Business Sample Frame (BSF), which includes businesses registered for value-added tax and income tax.

In case sales rose more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on the rand.

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 11.2532. In case USD/ZAR manages to breach the first resistance level at 11.3033, it may continue up to test 11.3867. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair could to advance to 11.4368.

If USD/ZAR manages to breach the first key support at 11.1698, it may continue to slide and test 11.1197. With this second key support broken, movement to the downside could extend to 11.0363.

The mid-pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 11.0780, M2 – 11.1448, M3 – 11.2115, M4 – 11.2783, M5 – 11.3450, M6 – 11.4118.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 11.2105. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 11.4130, R2 – 11.5660, R3 – 11.7685. The three key support levels are: S1 – 11.0575, S2 – 10.8550, S3 – 10.7020.

Forex Market: USD/ZAR daily trading forecast

August 20, 2020 7:15 am

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/ZAR within the range of 10.5964-10.6636. The pair closed at 10.6461, gaining 0.33% on a daily basis.

At 8:07 GMT today USD/ZAR was up 0.10% for the day to trade at 10.6572. The pair broke the first key daily and the first weekly resistance levels and touched a daily high at 10.6787 at 5:10 GMT.

At 18:00 GMT the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the minutes from its meeting on policy held on July 29th-30th. The minutes offer detailed insights on FOMC’s monetary policy stance. This release is closely examined by traders, as it may provide clues over interest rate decisions in the future. High volatility is usually present after the publication.

The annualized index of consumer prices ( CPI Consumer Price Index. Examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the basket and averaging them, weighting them according to its importance. CPI is sometimes referred to as “headline inflation”. Calculated on both annual and monthly basis. ) in South Africa probably fell to 6.4% in July from 6.6% in the prior month. The index measures the change in price levels of a basket of goods and services from consumer’s perspective and also reflects purchasing trends. The CPI Consumer Price Index. Examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the basket and averaging them, weighting them according to its importance. CPI is sometimes referred to as “headline inflation”. Calculated on both annual and monthly basis. in the country has been rising since October 2020.

The key categories in the consumer price index are Housing and Utilities (accounting for 24.5% of total weight), Transport (16.4%) and Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (15.4%). Others categories include Miscellaneous Goods and Services such as personal care, insurance and finance (14.7%), Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco (5.4%), Household Contents, Equipment and Maintenance (4.8%), Recreation and culture (4.1%), Clothing and Footwear (4.1%). The least share of total weight belongs to components such as Restaurants and Hotels (3.5%), Education (3.0%), Communication (2.6%) and Health (1.5%).

In case the CPI Consumer Price Index. Examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the basket and averaging them, weighting them according to its importance. CPI is sometimes referred to as “headline inflation”. Calculated on both annual and monthly basis. slowed down more than projected, this would have a bearish effect on the rand. Statistics South Africa is to release the official report at 8:00 GMT.

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 10.6354. In case USD/ZAR manages to breach the first resistance level at 10.6743, it will probably continue up to test 10.7025. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 10.7415.

If USD/ZAR manages to breach the first key support at 10.6067, it will probably continue to slide and test 10.5682. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 10.5399.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 10.5541, M2 – 10.5877, M3 – 10.6213, M4 – 10.6549, M5 – 10.6885, M6 – 10.7221.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 10.5854. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 10.6498, R2 – 10.7073, R3 – 10.7717. The three key support levels are: S1 – 10.5279, S2 – 10.4635, S3 – 10.4060.

Forex Market: USD/RUB daily trading forecast

December 26, 2020 1:56 pm

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/RUB within the range of 51.843-54.218. The daily low was also the lowest level since December 2nd. The pair closed at 53.100, losing 0.84% on a daily basis.

At 13:47 GMT today USD/RUB was up 6.05% for the day to trade at 54.297. The pair broke the first key daily resistance level and registered a daily high at 54.703 at 12:45 GMT.

US dollar managed to regain certain ground against the Russian ruble today, following four consecutive trading days of losses.

Friday’s decline of the ruble against the greenback shows the fragility of coordinated measures by the Russian government and Russias central bank, which helped the local currency bounce from an all-time low of 80.024, registered on December 16th. Gazprom and four other state-controlled exporting companies were ordered this week to reduce their holdings of foreign currency by March 1st to levels not exceeding those on October 1st. At the same time, the central bank attempted to ensure that banks have an easier access to US dollars and euros.

“Exporters have to sell, and while volumes aren’t that large, it’s enough to move this thin market,” Iskander Abdullaev, analyst at Sberbank CIB, said in e-mailed comments, cited by Bloomberg. “The market’s firmness will be tested later today when U. S. opens. I think there was an instruction to calm down the rate until the end of the year, so that retail clients don’t panic before holidays.”

The ruble has depreciated 39% since the beginning of the year, which marked the worst performance among 24 developing countries currencies, tracked by the same media. The Russian currency is poised to record the worst year since 1998, when the Russian Federation defaulted on debt.

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 53.054. In case USD/RUB manages to breach the first resistance level at 54.264, it will probably continue up to test 55.429. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 56.639.

If USD/RUB manages to breach the first key support at 51.889, it will probably continue to slide and test 50.679. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 49.514.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 50.097, M2 – 51.284, M3 – 52.472, M4 – 53.659, M5 – 54.847, M6 – 56.034.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 65.396. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 72.883, R2 – 87.511, R3 – 94.998. The three key support levels are: S1 – 50.768, S2 – 43.281, S3 – 28.653.

Forex Market: USD/RUB daily trading forecast

November 19, 2020 8:29 am

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/RUB within the range of 46.575-47.258. The pair closed at 46.908, losing 0.45% on a daily basis.

At 8:25 GMT today USD/RUB was up 0.34% for the day to trade at 47.033. The pair broke the first key daily resistance level and touched a daily high at 47.444 at 4:20 GMT. USD/RUB has appreciated 37.34% since the beginning of the year, as the major part of this advance was accumulated in the past five months due to geopolitical factors.

Building permits Tracks the statistics for housing construction, based on given building permits, issued by the local authorities. Does not track building permits numbers in areas of the U. S. where they are not obligatory. The statistics doesn’t show how many constructions have really been started since most of the data is not available by the time of publishing the report. and Housing starts Tracks statistics about the construction of single-family houses, which has just begun, marked by excavation works or laying the foundations of the building. Data from every single part of the country is compiled and it also includes overhauls of buildings, which lie on existing foundations.

The number of housing starts Tracks statistics about the construction of single-family houses, which has just begun, marked by excavation works or laying the foundations of the building. Data from every single part of the country is compiled and it also includes overhauls of buildings, which lie on existing foundations. in the United States probably increased to 1.025 million in October from the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.017 million during the prior month. If so, this would be the highest number of housing starts Tracks statistics about the construction of single-family houses, which has just begun, marked by excavation works or laying the foundations of the building. Data from every single part of the country is compiled and it also includes overhauls of buildings, which lie on existing foundations. since July, when 1.117 million sites were reported. Single-family housing starts Tracks statistics about the construction of single-family houses, which has just begun, marked by excavation works or laying the foundations of the building. Data from every single part of the country is compiled and it also includes overhauls of buildings, which lie on existing foundations. in September were at a rate of 646 000, or 1.1% above the revised figure of 639 000 in August. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 353 000, according to data by the US Census Bureau.

Housing Starts Tracks statistics about the construction of single-family houses, which has just begun, marked by excavation works or laying the foundations of the building. Data from every single part of the country is compiled and it also includes overhauls of buildings, which lie on existing foundations. represent a gauge to measure residential units, on which construction has already begun, every month. A start in construction is defined as the foundation laying of a building and it encompasses residential housing primarily.

The number of building permits Tracks the statistics for housing construction, based on given building permits, issued by the local authorities. Does not track building permits numbers in areas of the U. S. where they are not obligatory. The statistics doesn’t show how many constructions have really been started since most of the data is not available by the time of publishing the report. in the country probably rose to 1.040 million in October from an unrevised annual level of 1.018 million in September. If so, this would be the highest number of permits since July, when 1.052 million units were reported. Single-family authorizations in September were at a rate of 624 000, or 0.5% below the revised number of 627 000 in August. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 369 000 in September, according to the report by the Census Bureau.

Building permits Tracks the statistics for housing construction, based on given building permits, issued by the local authorities. Does not track building permits numbers in areas of the U. S. where they are not obligatory. The statistics doesn’t show how many constructions have really been started since most of the data is not available by the time of publishing the report. are permits, issued in order to allow excavation. An increase in the number of building permits Tracks the statistics for housing construction, based on given building permits, issued by the local authorities. Does not track building permits numbers in areas of the U. S. where they are not obligatory. The statistics doesn’t show how many constructions have really been started since most of the data is not available by the time of publishing the report. and housing starts Tracks statistics about the construction of single-family houses, which has just begun, marked by excavation works or laying the foundations of the building. Data from every single part of the country is compiled and it also includes overhauls of buildings, which lie on existing foundations. usually occurs a few months after mortgage rates in the country have been reduced. Permits are not required in all regions of the United States. Building permits Tracks the statistics for housing construction, based on given building permits, issued by the local authorities. Does not track building permits numbers in areas of the U. S. where they are not obligatory. The statistics doesn’t show how many constructions have really been started since most of the data is not available by the time of publishing the report. as an indicator, provide information regarding demand in US housing market. In case a higher-than-anticipated number is reported, this will certainly support the greenback. The official housing data is due out at 13:30 GMT.

At 19:00 GMT the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the minutes from its meeting on policy held on October 28th-29th. The minutes offer detailed insights on FOMC’s monetary policy stance. This release is closely examined by traders, as it may provide clues over interest rate decisions in the future. High volatility is usually present after the publication.

Russian annualized industrial production An indicator, which measures the activity of the industrial sector by estimating the change in production volumes for a certain period of time. Information is gather through surveys among European Union members that are called Prodcom. It’s calculated on both a monthly and annual basis. probably expanded 1.5% in October, according to market expectations. In September production index surged at a rate of 2.8%, or the most since May. The index reflects the change in overall inflation-adjusted value of output in sectors such as manufacturing, mining and utilities. In case industrial output expanded more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on the ruble. The Federal State Statistics Service will release the official industrial data at 13:00 GMT.

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 46.914. In case USD/RUB manages to breach the first resistance level at 47.252, it will probably continue up to test 47.597. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 47.935.

If USD/RUB manages to breach the first key support at 46.569, it will probably continue to slide and test 46.231. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 45.886.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 46.059, M2 – 46.400, M3 – 46.742, M4 – 47.083, M5 – 47.425, M6 – 47.766.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 46.666. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 48.379, R2 – 49.559, R3 – 51.272. The three key support levels are: S1 – 45.486, S2 – 43.773, S3 – 42.593.

Forex Market: USD/RUB daily trading forecast

October 28, 2020 9:12 am

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/RUB within the range of 41.777-42.309. The pair closed at 42.255, gaining 0.81% on a daily basis.

At 9:04 GMT today USD/RUB was up 0.65% for the day to trade at 42.529. The pair broke the first key daily and the first key weekly resistance levels and touched a new all-time high at 42.584 at 9:13 GMT.

Orders for durable goods

Durable goods orders Tracks the number of orders for durable goods placed with domestic manufacturers in the near term or future. New and second hand goods are included. The research is conducted by the U. S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Census and provides information on how busy factories may be in the future – both the ones who are investing in their equipment and those who will be producing the equipment. in the United States probably rose 0.6% in September compared to a month ago, according to the median forecast by experts. In August new orders for manufactured durable goods dropped at a pace of 18.4%, a revision down from an 18.2% drop previously, to reach USD 245.4 billion USD. Excluding defense, new orders fell 19.0% in August. Transportation equipment, also down, following two consecutive monthly increases, was the main driver behind the overall decrease, with orders falling 42.0% to reach USD 76.8 billion, according to data by the US Census Bureau. Inventories of manufactured durable goods, up during sixteen of the last seventeen months, rose 0.4% to USD 403.0 billion in August. Non-defense new orders for capital goods decreased 36.3% to USD 86.8 billion during the same month.

Durable goods orders Tracks the number of orders for durable goods placed with domestic manufacturers in the near term or future. New and second hand goods are included. The research is conducted by the U. S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Census and provides information on how busy factories may be in the future – both the ones who are investing in their equipment and those who will be producing the equipment. as an indicator, gauge the strength of US manufacturing sector and represent a major portion of nations factory orders Tracks the manufacturing orders, deliveries and inventories and provides substantial statistical information about the manufacturing sector’s current state. Also provides a forecast for the future business development. The survey includes 89 industrial categories and 473 subgroups. New orders statistics include orders received and completed in the respective month of the survey, but also orders that have been placed currently, but should be executed in the future. Calculated on a monthly basis with delay of 1 month (for example, indicator for April is published in June). This is a closely watched report on manufacturing activity, because durable goods are the first type of goods to be affected by an economic downturn or upturn.

Durable goods are designed to last three or more years and encompass aircraft, automobiles and buses, cranes, machine parts, appliances etc. More than 85 industries are represented in the sample, which covers the entire United States. The logic behind this indicator is that consumers need to be very optimistic in order to buy an automobile in comparison with, for example, first necessities such as food or clothing. Therefore, durable goods are among the first goods, which a consumer may abstain from purchasing, in case overall economic activity begins to contract. The same is valid for company purchases. During a recession, an airliner is less likely to purchase new planes and as factory output contracts, it is less likely to purchase new machines.

Durable goods orders Tracks the number of orders for durable goods placed with domestic manufacturers in the near term or future. New and second hand goods are included. The research is conducted by the U. S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Census and provides information on how busy factories may be in the future – both the ones who are investing in their equipment and those who will be producing the equipment. which exclude transportation, probably rose 0.5% in September, following a revised down 0.4% increase in August (0.7% gain previously). Large ticket orders, such as automobiles for civil use or aircraft, are not present in the calculation, as their value may be in a wide range. This way the index provides a more reliable information in regard to orders of durable goods.

In case orders increased at a faster pace than projected, this would certainly have a bullish effect on the greenback. US Census Bureau is scheduled to release the official numbers at 12:30 GMT.

Consumer confidence index Consumer Confidence Index. A monthly survey conducted by TNS – the world’s biggest consumer data researcher, for the Conference Board. It is based on an excerpt of over 5 000 american households. Participants share their opinion about the relative economic conditions and future expectations, which also include the labor market and the whole economic framework. Base value is the number for 1985 – 100. The higher the consumer confidence is, the more goods and services will people tend to purchase, which will eventually stimulate the economy. by the CB

Confidence among consumers in the United States probably slightly improved in October, with the corresponding index coming in at a reading of 87.0 from 86.0 in September. The latter has been the lowest value since June, when the index stood at 85.2.

This indicator measures the level of individuals confidence in the US economic activity. It is considered as a leading indicator, as it gives an early insight into consumer spending Tracks the amount of inflation-adjusted expenditures made by households. Includes money spent for both durable goods (TVs, washing machines etc.) and non-durable goods (food). Gives a short-term insight into consumer confidence and behavior. It is also referred to as consumption and is calculated both on a monthly and annual basis. which accounts for most of the nations GDP Gross Domestic Product. Generally measures how big an economy is. It represents the market value of all products and services produced by an economy for a certain period – monthly, quarterly and annual. GDP per capita generally represents a country’s standard of living. Confidence is measured on a scale of -100 to +100. A reading of -100 implies a lack of confidence, while a reading of 100 is indicative of extremely high confidence. Zero values imply neutrality. In case the index improved more than anticipated, this might provide support to the US dollar, as higher confidence suggests greater willingness to spend and, respectively, accelerated economic growth. The Conference Board research group is to publish the official index reading at 14:00 GMT.

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 42.114. In case USD/RUB manages to breach the first resistance level at 42.450, it will probably continue up to test 42.646. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 42.982.

If USD/RUB manages to breach the first key support at 41.918, it will probably continue to slide and test 41.582. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 41.386.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 41.484, M2 – 41.750, M3 – 42.016, M4 – 42.282, M5 – 42.548, M6 – 42.814.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 41.567. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 42.363, R2 – 42.814, R3 – 43.610. The three key support levels are: S1 – 41.116, S2 – 40.320, S3 – 39.869.

Forex trading strategy#6(-key simplicity-)

Forex trading strategy #6 (Key Simplicity)

Submitted by Edward Revy on February 28, 2007 – 15:49.

Yes, one look – one hit. A trader can decide on his/her trading plans by a simple 1 second glance at the chart. It is a very simple Forex trading system that is a pleasure to use for traders with a busy schedule.

Time frame: 1 day

Indicators: 5 EMA, 12 EMA, RSI 21

Entry rules: Buy when 5 EMA crosses up and over 12 EMA and RSI is above 50. Sell when 5 EMA crosses down and below 12 EMA and RSI is below 50.

Introducing the lync2020rollout and adoption success kit(rask)

Introducing the Lync 2020 Rollout and Adoption Success Kit (RASK)

Technology adoption is the deep utilization and habitual use of a product or technology by end-users. Developing and implementing an effective end-user rollout strategy, in tandem with your technical deployment efforts, is key to driving both immediate and sustained adoption of Lync, and can result in faster ROI, improved productivity, and increased user satisfaction. The Lync Rollout and Adoption Success Kit (RASK) provides an easy-to-follow, end-to-end framework for rolling out Lync 2020 within an organization. Inclusive of checklists, best practices, and key resources, Lync 2020 RASK offers guidance and resources to help achieve maximum results with your Lync rollout .

Author . Debbie Arbeeny, Microsoft Program Manager

Editor . Susan S. Bradley

Product version . Lync 2020

We are excited to announce the release of the Lync 2020 Rollout and Adoption Success Kit (RASK). RASK is a comprehensive guide based on a flexible, repeatable methodology and can be used for initial Lync rollouts, as new workloads are being deployed, or between version upgrades.

RASK represents the next evolution of deployment and adoption focused methodologies resources previously put forth in several disparate kits, including the Lync Adoption Training Kit and the Pilot Success Kit. RASK can be easily modified to accommodate both small and large organizations or adjusted, based on an organizations current deployment status.

Whats included in RASK?

RASK is designed around an end-to-end product lifecycle, from initial project planning through sustained operations. It is organized into an easy-to-follow “5×5” approach, with five phases and five focus areas.

The five core phases— Project Scope, Proof of Concept, Pilot, Enterprise Rollout, and Run State —map to a typical product lifecycle. Within each phase are five underlying focus areas: Planning, Help Desk, Awareness, Training . and Operations . which outline related actions.

Users will find guided focus-area discussions, best practices, common challenges/mitigations, and getting started checklists. In addition, valuable reference materials and downloadable resources are included, such as a customizable project plan, Lync deployment readiness report, success metrics, email samples, survey templates, and much more.

Why focus on end-user adoption?

Change management can be the biggest obstacle when rolling out a new technology. Ensuring a positive end user experience is one of the most crucial success factors driving optimized ROI and customer satisfaction with Lync. The degree of change and impact to an end-user is often overlooked, resulting in poor product reception, limited Lync adoption, and increased escalations. Thoughtful communications, effective awareness generation, and end-user training can drive deep utilization and habitual use of Lync. It can also help organizations translate their business goals into an actionable and results-driven solution. The most successful customers incorporate readiness and end-user adoption components across the Lync deployment lifecycle.

Who should use Lync RASK?

Those on the project team accountable for rolling out Lync will find value in RASK. Team members typically include:

Project Managers/IT Pros responsible for scoping and managing the overall rollout project, starting with the Proof of Concept and Pilot phases.

Marketing Managers responsible for designing and executing a full-fledged awareness campaign.

Training Managers responsible for developing and delivering training strategy.

Support Managers responsible for ensuring their support agents and processes are in place and ready for end-user consumption.

Operations Managers responsible for ongoing maintenance and management of Lync.

Where to access Lync RASK?

While the technical deployment of Lync is a critical step toward achieving your goals and ROI, it is not the only step. Without deep user adoption, Lync can quickly become just another desktop icon. Lync RASK is designed to offer guidance and resources to help you drive fast and sustained adoption and achieve maximum results with your Lync rollout. Leverage the Lync 2020 Rollout and Adoption Success Kit to get started with your rollout and adoption planning today.

Short-term trend trading

About Dave Donald Moenning

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Foreign exchange trading (Forex) is offered to self-directed investors through TradeKing Forex. TradeKing Forex, Inc and TradeKing Securities, LLC are separate, but affiliated companies. Forex accounts are not protected by the Securities Investor Protection Corp. (SIPC).

Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of investing experience, and ability to take financial risk. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained does not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclosure. Please note that spot gold and silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U. S. Commodity Exchange Act.

TradeKing Forex, Inc acts as an introducing broker to GAIN Capital Group, LLC (“GAIN Capital”). Your forex account is held and maintained at GAIN Capital who serves as the clearing agent and counterparty to your trades. GAIN Capital is a registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) (ID # 0339826). TradeKing Forex, Inc. is a member of the National Futures Association (ID # 0408077).

Lesson5central banks and interest rates

Lesson 5: Central Banks and Interest Rates

5.1 Interest Rates Importance to Forex

Interest rates play the most important role in moving the prices of currencies in the foreign exchange market. As the institutions that set interest rates, central banks are therefore the most influential actors. Interest rates dictate flows of investment. Since currencies are the representations of a countrys economy, differences in interest rates affect the relative worth of currencies in relation to one another. When central banks change interest rates they cause the forex market to experience movement and volatility. In the realm of Forex trading, accurate speculation of central banks actions can enhance the trader’s chances for a successful trade.

Interest Rates Dictate Investment

Interest rates can be simply defined as the amount of money a borrower must pay to a lender in order to hold their money. In a simple representation of the foreign exchange market, the lender is an investor holding cash or assets and the borrower is a bank inside a particular country. The lender (investor) provides money to the borrower (the bank) and will receive, after a specific time period, interest in conjunction with the original sum he or she put in. Typically, interest is applied as an annual rate or percentage of the amount being lent. In forex trading interest is credited on a daily basis.

A simple example:

A US investor, Jane, wants to place 100 dollars into a savings account with either a domestic or a foreign bank. The US banks interest rate is 5.25%. In Japan, the interest rate for a savings account is 0.25% and in New Zealand it is 7.25%. In considering the best investment after a year, Jane can get back $105.25 investing in the US, $100.25 in Japan, and $107.25 in New Zealand. Opening an account and “lending” money to a New Zealand bank is the investment option that achieves the biggest return for Jane.

Janes investment decision shows that higher interest rates attract capital. As a result central banks may attempt to draw foreign investment to their countries through higher interest rates.

How Interest Rates Play a Role in the Currency Markets

An increase in interest rates encourages traders to invest within that market and causes the demand for the currency to rise. As demand rises, the currency becomes scarcer and consequently more valuable. Investors are drawn to the currency, causing it to appreciate, because they will gain a higher yield on their investments, as in the Jane example. In order to purchase the country’s assets (stocks or bonds), Jane will have to convert her domestic currency to the target country’s currency also increasing demand. Conversely, a fall in interest rates dissuades investors from purchasing assets in that economy, as the return on their investment is now smaller. The economy’s currency will depreciate as a result of the weaker demand.

Forex5pips strategy

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The international foreign exchange market provides opportunities for deriving high-yield and high-risk profit from currency rate fluctuations. Success of a trader depends on many factors; one of them is a trading platform the broker offers for operating on the market. Today most forex brokerage companies and their customers prefer MetaTrader 4 и MetaTrader 5 terminals. If you go for MetaTrader platforms as well, be sure − mt5 forex forum has been designed for you.

Forex forum India ─ Trading discussions.

On our forum you will find relevant forex forecasts and have a chance to join discussions held by experts of the currency market, professional traders and those who are new to Forex. These discussions will bring answers to all your questions. Moreover, you will be able to express your opinion, get useful information, ask for help or, on the contrary, give someone helping hand. Everyone willing to learn something new and share the knowledge gained is welcome!

Forex forum India − Socializing with brokers and traders (about brokers).

The forum contains a rating of companies rendering brokerage services based on traders’ opinions. You can also share the impressions a certain forex broker left on you, provide your assessment of its services quality and also tell about your positive or negative experience of working with a brokerage company. Your comments will help other traders avoid mistakes and choose a reliable broker to cooperate with.

Our forum is a good way to have some rest from work and communicate with friends on miscellaneous topics. This is a realm of anecdotes, jokes, caricatures, contests, sports news discussions, real life stories and off-topic unleashed. However, since trading is a lifestyle rather than a profession, trading related topics might be discussed as well.

Bonuses for socializing on Forex forum India

This forex forum has been created by traders for traders and is not meant for making profit. Nevertheless, mt5 enables authors of posts to earn forex bonuses that can be employed in trading on an account of one of the forum sponsors. These money presents are symbols of gratitude to all professional forex traders for time they spend on our forum.

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Pound sterling forecast

We tell you what you need to know – Not what we want you to hear!

Sterling US Dollar Exchange Rates Close to 6 Month High

Sterling dollar exchange rates have hit a six month high in the last few days. At the time of writing the pound is down marginally for today, but overall holding relatively firm vs the dollar. A lack of action from the Bank of England today (keeping interest rates on hold), has meant the market has been relatively stable with only a 1 cent movement from high to low.

Looking a head its difficult to predict cable movement (GBPUSD) but it is worth bearing that we are at a six month high if you do need to buy USD! Sometimes its best not to gamble and I think now is the time, sterling is up 4.5% in the last month, and around 11% from the lows of 2020 in May.

In terms of a forecast, I think it really depends how the UK economy fairs. We have a slowdown in the US priced into current rates, so the main issue for sterling is that the budget cuts and public spending reductions are coming in to force in the next few months. These could have a very negative effect on exchange rates as it may lead to:

Reduced consumer confidence

Reduced consumer spending

Higher public sector unemployment

Lower levels of GDP growth, and possibly GDP contraction

At present there isn’t a great deal of focus on these cuts, which is why the pound has held up around a six month high recently. I personally think we could see things head back toward the low 1.50’s, so my overall feeling would be not to hold on too long if you need to buy USD. For more information, fill in the form on the right .

One Response to Sterling US Dollar Exchange Rates Close to 6 Month High

Zar fx reviews

BEWARE. Because of the long story of the BAD experience i had with zarforex, I will put my review short. I am shocked that people dont take time to make reviews after being hit hard. Yes i know just like me many others, leaving everything to God to fight back and revenge is the best but for the sake of others not to fall into this terrible trap of SCAM. i am making this review.

This so called forex company is the worst nightmare you dont ever want to see happen to you in your entire lifetime.

1. They are not regulated by anybody so they can do whatever they feel like anytime they like ad the day they decide against you there is nobody to help you.

2. If you win they wont pay you your profits instead they will cancel all our profits and will refuse to send you back your deposit until after you have disturbed them for months then you might be lucky to get your deposits back after months. So make sure you deposit and lose all your money with them else you are in for BIG fight.

3. All their addresses on their website and everywhere online is FAKE, if you go to their address stated online you will NOT find anybody there, no trace of them anywhere.

4. Their phone lines are cloned UK lines working from another country someone hidden in Europe from my observation.

5. They are dribblers. When they decide against you suddenly they will dribble and suffer you until you get tired of calling them and sending them emails asking for your right. They wil never keep their word nor keep their agreement. They are defaulters if you are profitable.

6. They are one of the bucket shops pretending to be ECN whereas they are pure market makers. How do you know, just make some good profit and place withdrawal to them then you see the real devil behind them.

These and many more i cannot say it all but a trial will convince you about these things if you are in doubt. For your own good stay away. They will make you suffer and cry all through the night.

Tags: ZAR FX reviews

BEWARE. Because of the long story of the BAD experience i had with zarforex, I will put my review short. I am shocked that people dont take time to make reviews after being hit hard. Yes i know just like me many others, leaving everything to God to fight back and revenge is the best but for the sake of others not to fall into this terrible trap of SCAM. i am making this review.

This so called forex company is the worst nightmare you dont ever want to see happen to you in your entire lifetime.

1. They are not regulated by anybody so they can do whatever they feel like anytime they like ad the day they decide against you there is nobody to help you.

2. If you win they wont pay you your profits instead they will cancel all our profits and will refuse to send you back your deposit until after you have disturbed them for months then you might be lucky to get your deposits back after months. So make sure you deposit and lose all your money with them else you are in for BIG fight.

3. All their addresses on their website and everywhere online is FAKE, if you go to their address stated online you will NOT find anybody there, no trace of them anywhere.

4. Their phone lines are cloned UK lines working from another country someone hidden in Europe from my observation.

5. They are dribblers. When they decide against you suddenly they will dribble and suffer you until you get tired of calling them and sending them emails asking for your right. They wil never keep their word nor keep their agreement. They are defaulters if you are profitable.

6. They are one of the bucket shops pretending to be ECN whereas they are pure market makers. How do you know, just make some good profit and place withdrawal to them then you see the real devil behind them.

These and many more i cannot say it all but a trial will convince you about these things if you are in doubt. For your own good stay away. They will make you suffer and cry all through the night.

Tags: ZAR FX reviews

Binary options bully user reviews and discussion

Binary Options Bully User Reviews And Discussion

Binary Options Bully is a new forex trading formula and strategy being sold by Greg Davis for $77 on the Clickbank payment processor. Greg offers a 60 day money back guarantee.

Greg shows 3 screenshots of trades he made on random dates. The first is from Nov 4 to Dec 6 2020 where he shows a gain of $492 in 5 trades.

The second screenshot is from December 2020 and shows 6 trades taking place for a total profit of just $40.

The third and final screenshot shows 5 trades that took place between June 5 6 2020 for a profit of $468.

So in almost a years time Greg has managed to make close to $1000. Im not very impressed, and we dont even know if these results are legit are not as theyre just screenshots.

A complete manual strategy based off price action that supposively works on all currency pairs.

Remember if you are going to try Binary Options Bully that you fully understand how the system works before running it live. I always recommend to use your refund period to test it thoroughly for at least a month. If your results are above satisfaction, then and only then should you consider taking steps to trade it live with your hard earned money. Just because a website says their system will make $xx, xxx a month doesnt mean its going to. So if you are not satisfied, do not hesitate to request your money back. If you are interested in more information on this forex product then check out the link or any comments below.

If real user reviews of BinaryOptionsBully are what you are looking for, then check the comments below. They are real customer experiences with this product. If there are no comments, then be sure to come back frequently and check for updates as our review and discussion of this product continues to grow.

If you have experience with Binary Options Bully or know something people might find important please feel free to share in a comment below. It may help someone save or make a lot of money so dont hold back. Because of the influx in forex robots and forex systems being released right now, our reviewing as been slowed but our user comments have not. Make yourself at home and write a comment, or ask a question for the community to discuss. You will be surprised the information and knowledge you may unveil.

If you want to submit a forex trading product or broker that is not listed on our site, please use the Submit A Forex System form or Submit Your Own Articles. There are many private and underground forex robots and systems out there they I just dont have the time to look for. So if you know of any, or a place to find them please feel free to share and I will make a post about it for the community to discuss.

Ok guys lets get the ball rolling, here at ForexFBI we encourage our visitors to discuss your Binary Options Bully experiences, strategies, thoughts, whatever

Binary Options Bully Rating

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How to profit using an online trading platform from new zealand

Level 50, 120 Collins Street, Melbourne, VIC, 3000, Australia

Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk, including the risk of losing substantially more than your initial expenditure. Also, you do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets. The effect of leverage is that both gains and losses are magnified. You should only trade Forex if you can afford to carry these risks.

Trading Physical Bullion also carries a high level of risk. GO Markets Pty Ltd does not guarantee the performance, return of capital from, or any particular rate of return of bullion. You should only trade in risk capital (that is, capital you can afford to lose). Please note that the historical financial performance of any bullion or underlying instrument/market is no guarantee or indicator of future performance.

Trading Derivatives and/or Physical Bullion may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, and seek independent advice if necessary. A Financial Services Guide ( FSG ), Product Disclosure Statement ( PDS ) and Product Information Document (Physical Bullion only) for our products are available from GO Markets Pty Ltd to download at this website or here. and hard copies can be obtained by contacting the offices at the number above.

Please also note that your call may be recorded for training and monitoring purposes. Any advice provided to you on this website or by our representatives is general advice only, and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider the appropriateness of our advice before making any decision about using our services. You should also consider our PDS and Product Information Document (Physical Bullion only) before making any decision about using our products or services.

Note that the information on this site is not directed at residents in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

Breakout trading strategy pdf strategies for binary options trading

Breakout trading strategy pdf. Strategies for binary options trading

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Trading strategy generation

Trading strategy generation Binary Options Trading Platform lqslc

Jul 21, 2020 Uncategorized Comments Off on Trading strategy generation Binary Options Trading Platform lqslc

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