Weird Psychological Quirks That May Be Affecting Your Trading

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Weird Psychological Quirks That May Be Affecting Your Trading

Usually we convince ourselves we are acting logically, and making the best choices. This convincing actually allows us to function in the world, because if we fully realized what we are doing at all times we’d drive ourselves nuts and probably get very little done. A little bit of self deception, it would seem, is necessary; it is impossible to be totally honest with ourselves all the time. But trading is one area where this self deception, or things hidden in your psyche, can hurt our performance. Here are a few obscure human quirks which may be affecting your trading.

Law of Consistency

People tend to remain consistent with past statements or actions. Past behavior sets a precedent for futures behavior, even if isn’t in our best interest. If you skip a trade once and publicly stated that you didn’t like the set-up, then chances are you will continue to skip that type of trade…even if it is a profitable set-up. An extreme case is someone who states “I am going to buy this stock even if it goes to zero.” And they do!

We all have seen this type of stubbornness, but usually we only see it others. Markets are dynamic, which means they are constantly changing, which means as traders we need to change with it. Realize when you are doing something self-destructive for the sake of consistency, and create a new plan instead.

Stuck in the Moment

Visualizing, or getting yourself out of the current moment is actually fairly hard work. Have you ever tried to do it?

You’re sitting at your computer watching the markets and the price is approaching one of your entry levels. Before that trade executes, visualize yourself following your trading plan–you execute the trade at the time and price dictated by your plan, the position size is correct and you can see yourself exiting (or choosing your expiry) according to your plan.

Most people don’t visualize in this way, and if they do they tend to focus on results. They visualize the money are about to make. That isn’t ideal though. Visualize following your plan, not results. Doing so reinforces good habits and is likely to result in you actually following the plan. Follow the plan and results will come…not the other way around.

Loss of Word Power

Over time, the more you hear something, the less powerful it becomes. Consider a smoker who constantly hears “That is going to kill you!” Maybe the first time the smoker heard it the statement had an impact, but since they just starting smoking they responded “I got time.” After years of hearing “That is going to kill you!” it has no impact though, and does not affect behavior in the least.

Traders face the same thing. They try to consume so much information that they re-read the same thing, said in many different ways, over and over again. What do you think happens? What they read loses it’s impact, because they skip over the things they read most often, such as creating a trading plan and keeping risk on each trade small. The scary thing is that these are the most important aspects of trading, yet most new traders just ignore these pieces of information because they hear them so often.

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Did you just say to yourself “Yeah, I know that?” Many likely did, but knowing and doing are very different things.

The Bottom Line

After looking at these three psychological quirks we realize they are not that obscure at all, we yield to them every day. Being aware of them can help us alter course when it is prudent to do so. If we have developed consistency in something that is harming us, we have the ability to change it. We can visualize ourselves sticking to a process which is beneficial; this takes some work but pays off because it helps develop consistently good habits. And just because we hear something a lot doesn’t mean it isn’t good advice. Take information in and analyze it for what it is, don’t assume it isn’t worthwhile because you have heard it before.

Weird Psychological Quirks That May Be Affecting Your Trading

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Forex demo before you dive in

Forex: Demo Before You Dive In

Because forex (FX) is a decentralized market in which dealers disseminate their own price feeds through proprietary trading platforms, it is crucial to learn the features and idiosyncrasies of each type of trading software before committing real funds to an account. Fortunately, in retail, FX traders can test out each platform using demo dollars. Every reputable dealer in FX allows potential customers to download a free demo version of its software. This is critical if the customer is to become acquainted with the platform’s layout and the means of order entry. Here we’ll discuss the importance of demo trading and let you know what you should look out for when trying different platforms.

As a trader, you should always try out dealer demos before trading live – it’s the only way to become familiar with the different features of various platforms. For example, some platforms simply use pop-up tickets, while others actually mark the order location on the chart. Typically, to buy a currency pair. you simply click on the offer part of the quote (the ask ), and to sell, you click on the bid part. Some platforms allow you to choose market or limit orders after the quote window pops up, while others force you to make your selection beforehand.

It’s a good idea to place at least 20 demo trades on each platform before trading actual money, just so you can master the specifics of order entry on each platform. A trader should never trade live unless he or she can confidently answer all of the following questions:

Backtesting option strategies

Backtesting Option Strategies

by John A. Sarkett

Looking for a quick way to backtest option strategies? You can use Excel to count occurrences of historical prices outside a price band you set to develop an expectation for future price movement. Heres how.

So much of the option traders life has been enhanced over just the past 10 or so years. We have radically lower commissions — $0.15 to $1.50 per contract, plus various ticket charge plans; we have tighter markets, with high-volume contracts just one penny apart; we have better software with risk curves, what-if scenarios, and charting, with brokers and vendors continue to enhance their offerings; and finally, we have easier access to futures and world markets for intermarket hedging.

Only one aspect of the option trading experience remains, more or less, as it was years ago — option strategy backtesting. If I put on this Spx or Spy or Rut or Etf or Xyz butterfly, condor, calendar, or double diagonal, what are my chances of success based on the recent past? That is the biggest question for every option trader.

For a back-of-the-envelope type calculation, some use deltas as shorthand for the probability of going in-the-money. For example, an option with a 10 delta will have roughly a 10% chance of doing so. Actual probability math is much more complex (see my December 1997 SC article ), but the answers usually come out close enough. Some software calculates “probability of expiration” or “probability of touching” (strike) for you. Thinkorswim does this, for example.

Figure 1: breaking out. Once a bull market run began here in the SPY, it exceeded the daily variance bands (that is, last price was constantly equal to or greater than 7.5% versus price 46 days earlier) nearly every day for two months; there was no regression for those waiting for a pullback — an important consideration for the option trader who must be alert and nimble, and typically does not have one or two years, like a long-term position trader, for a position to come back.

…Continued in the July issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks Commodities

Excerpted from an article originally published in the July 2020 issue of

Technical Analysis of Stocks Commodities magazine. All rights reserved.

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MetaTrader 4 is one of the most popular forex trading platforms in the world today. All the necessary trading tools and resources are on hand to allow traders to conduct forex research and technical analysis, enter and exit trades and even use third-party automated forex trading software (Expert Advisors or EA’s). Not happy with commercially available EA’s? MetaTrader uses its own programming language MQL4, which allows you to program your own automated trading robots.

MetaTrader 4 Broker software offers an impressive array of analytical tools. Nine timeframes are available for each financial instrument. These provide detailed analysis of quote dynamics. A built-in library of more than 50 indicators and tools streamline the analysis process, enabling traders to identify trends, define various market shapes, determine entry and exit points, print charts of any instruments and conduct their own on paper analysis.

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This is the best forex trading platform in a variety of ways, including trading directly from charts. Embedded tick charts are an extremely useful way to determine accurate entry and exit points.

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As with any financial transactions, the security of the information being transmitted is of fundamental importance. The FXCC MetaTrader 4 Broker software transmits information to and from the markets on 128-bit encrypted connections. This is there to ensure the security of all your trades. In addition to this, FXCC also offers the possibility to use the extended security algorithms of Public Key Cryptography. Information secured in this fashion is virtually impossible to hack in any short amount of time.

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Expert advisor is a mechanical trade system (MTS) linked up to certain plots. The advisors can not only inform you about a possibility to enter trades, but also make deals on the trade account automatically and direct them right to the trade server. Like most forex trading systems, the MetaTrader 4 Trading terminal supports testing strategies on historical data with graphical displays of trade entry and exit points.

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Scripts are programs destined for single execution of some actions. Unlike Forex Expert Advisors, Scripts aren’t run tick-wise and have no access to indicator functions.

Libraries are user function databases where frequently used blocks of MQL4 code are stored. When programming a particular strategy or EA in MQL4, users can draw from their code libraries and add these stored functions to their new trading robots.

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October2020

For this months Traders Tips, the focus is mainly Sylvain Vervoorts article from the September 2020 issue, “Exploring Charting Techniques: Creating A Trading Strategy, Part 3.” Here we present the October 2020 Traders Tips code with possible implementations in various software.

Code for NinjaTrader was already provided with Vervoorts article by the author. SC subscribers will find that code at the Subscriber Area of our website here. (Click on “SC Article Code” from the homepage.) Presented here is an overview of some possible implementations for other software as well.

Traders Tips code is provided to help the reader implement a selected technique from an article in this issue or another recent issue. The entries here are contributed by various software developers or programmers for software that is capable of customization.

TRADESTATION: OCTOBER 2020

In “Exploring Charting Techniques: Creating A Trading Strategy, Part 3,” which appeared last month in the September 2020 issue of STOCKS COMMODITIES, author Sylvain Vervoort describes a process for creating indicators and strategies. Through his article series, the author takes us step by step, building up his trading idea with additional criteria along the way.

We are providing EasyLanguage code for both upper (moving averages) and lower (trading signal) indicators, as well as a strategy based on the authors ideas (see Figure 1). As Vervoort points out, advanced chart types can be automated only when the limitations are fully understood.

FIGURE 1: TRADESTATION. Here is an example implementation of the strategy and indicators based on author Sylvain Vervoorts ideas applied to a chart of the SP 500 index using a one-point renko bar.

More on strategy backtesting and automation of TradeStations range, renko, and other advanced chart types can be found in the advance chart type entry within platform help (from the TradeStation platform help menu, select platform help ).

To download the EasyLanguage code for TradeStation, please visit our TradeStation and EasyLanguage support forum. The code from this article can be found here: tradestation/TASC-2020. The ELD filename is “_TASC_OCT2020_CREATINGSTRATEGY. ELD.”

For more information about EasyLanguage in general, please see tradestation/EL-FAQ .

This article is for informational purposes. No type of trading or investment recommendation, advice, or strategy is being made, given, or in any manner provided by TradeStation Securities or its affiliates.

TradeStation Securities, Inc.

eSIGNAL: OCTOBER 2020

For this months Traders Tip, weve provided the formula SVEHaTypeCrossStrategy. efs based on the formula described in Sylvain Vervoorts article in the September 2020 issue of STOCKS COMMODITIES, “Exploring Charting Techniques: Creating a Trading Strategy, Part 3.”

The study contains formula parameters that may be configured through the edit chart window (right-click on the chart and select “edit chart”). A sample chart is shown in Figure 2.

FIGURE 2: eSIGNAL. Here is an example of the SVEHaTypeCrossStrategy. efs shown on a chart of SP 500 emini futures (ES).

To discuss this study or download a complete copy of the formula code, please visit the EFS Library Discussion Board forum under the forums link from the support menu at esignal or visit our EFS KnowledgeBase at esignal/support/kb/efs/. The eSignal formula script (EFS) is also available below for copying pasting or for downloading here .

eSignal, an Interactive Data company

THINKORSWIM: OCTOBER 2020

In part 3 of his series on exploring charting techniques, which appeared in the September 2020 issue of STOCKS COMMODITIES (“Creating A Trading Strategy”), author Sylvain Vervoort takes an in-depth look at defining, testing, and using a trading strategy. At thinkorswim, we have used our proprietary scripting language thinkScript to build a strategy for detecting trends using this method.

We have made the loading process extremely easy: Simply click on the link tos. mx/Hp8IeR and choose Backtest in thinkorswim . then choose to rename your study to “SyVerPart3.” You can adjust the parameters of these within the edit studies window to fine-tune your variables. In the article, Vervoort bases his strategy on a renko chart type. In thinkorswim charts, renko bars can be found under Style → Range for aggregation type . Then you can adjust the range type to “renko” under the style menu as well. A sample chart is shown in Figure 3.

For a detailed description of the strategy itself, see Vervoorts article in the September 2020 issue of SC. Happy swimming!

—thinkorswim, A division of TD Ameritrade, Inc.

WEALTH-LAB: OCTOBER 2020

At first, it may seem that the idea presented in “Exploring Charting Techniques: Creating A Trading Strategy, Part 3” by Sylvain Vervoort, which appeared last month in the September 2020 issue of SC, is trivial. After all, what dont we know about the many variations of a moving average crossover? However, in his article, Vervoort takes the technique a step further, applying moving average crossovers on his modified renko chart with the added twist of heikin-ashi. The premise is to reduce the noise of a typical fixed-time-related chart and to produce fewer losing trades.

First, well build two moving averages: The fast is the simple moving average (SMA) of the renko-based typical price, and the slow is an SMA of heikin-ashi (HA) recalculated prices. For simplicity of our example strategy, we take a standard renko chart and use daily prices. Despite using the same period, the HA-based average always lags due to added smoothing. The rules of the strategy are:

When the eight-period “fast” average crosses above the “slower” counterpart of the same period, a long position is established.

When the eight-period “fast” average crosses below the “slower” average of the same period, the long position is closed.

In Figure 4, the green and red renko bricks are superimposed on the open/high/low/close (OHLC) chart.

FIGURE 4: WEALTH-LAB. This sample Wealth-Lab 6 chart illustrates application of the systems rules on a daily chart of AXP (American Express).

To execute the trading system were providing, Wealth-Lab users can copy paste the strategys C# code, or simply let Wealth-Lab do the job: in the open strategy dialog, simply click download to get the strategy code.

—Eugene, Wealth-Lab team

AMIBROKER: OCTOBER 2020

In “Exploring Charting Techniques: Creating A Trading Strategy, Part 3,” which appeared in the September 2020 issue of STOCKS COMMODITIES, author Sylvain Vervoort continued his article series presenting a trading system based on modified renko charts and moving averages.

We are providing a ready-to-use formula for AmiBroker. It is based on the formula that Vervoort presented in his September 2020 article with the addition of trading rules, a colorized background, and moving averages for display in AmiBroker (see Figure 5).

FIGURE 5: AMIBROKER. This modified renko chart of the SP 500 index displays moving average crossovers and sample trading system entry/exit points.

—Tomasz Janeczko, AmiBroker

NEUROSHELL TRADER: OCTOBER 2020

We have recreated the renko bar trading system described by Sylvain Vervoort in his September 2020 article “Exploring Charting Techniques: Creating A Trading Strategy, Part 3,” using NeuroShell Traders point-and-click indicator wizard without the need for programming.

We used the InterChart Tools Renko add-in to NeuroShell and the heikin-ashi close indicator from a previous Traders Tip to quickly set up the eight-period simple moving averages of the typical price and the heikin-ashi average closing price (see Vervoorts article in the September 2020 issue for more details of his technique).

To produce a chart similar to the one we show in Figure 6 of the SP 500 index, you can insert the indicators as follows:

Select “New indicator” from the Insert menu

Choose the averages category and select simple moving average, 8 periods

Substitute the Ict Renko HLC3 (0.10, 1, 1, 10, High, Low, Volume) for the default value to recreate the typical price indicator described in Vervoorts article

Create another average indicator, and this time, substitute the HeikinAshiClose of the corresponding Ict Renko Bars to generate the heikin-ashi average closing price indicator.

FIGURE 6: NEUROSHELL TRADER. This NeuroShell Trader chart displays the crossover of the eight-period SMA of the typical price and heikin-ashi average closing price. This strategy was created using the indicator wizard in NeuroShell Trader, so no programming is needed by the user.

The InterChart Tools Renko bars are virtual bars and perform their calculations using the same methods as traditional renko bars, but once a trading signal is generated by the renko bar, both the trade and fill are correctly displayed on the open of the next bar of the base chart.

The base chart is a 0.10 range bar of the SP 500 index. The value of 0.10 virtual tick size in the Ict Renko Bars corresponds to the size of the base charts range bar. The next two parameters represent the number of ticks used to calculate the up part of the renko bar, followed by the number of ticks used to compute the down part. The “10” represents a multiplier that is applied to the described renko bars up/down ratio to realize its final size. This enables the indicators to use a different number of ticks for the up and down side of the renko bars. Since any bars function is to absorb noise, and rising price jitter is often different from falling price jitter, our renko bars permit an asymmetrical definition to accommodate this.

In the trading system described by Vervoort in his article, the trading signals occur when the average of the typical price crosses above or below the average of the heikin-ashi close of the renko bars. Rather than using a visual system, you could use NeuroShell Traders point-and-click wizard to build the crossover trading rules and allow NeuroShell Traders optimizer to identify the optimal bar size and noise absorption for a given algorithm or equity.

Users of NeuroShell Trader can go to the STOCKS COMMODITIES section of the NeuroShell Trader free technical support website to download a copy of this or any previous Traders Tips.

—Marge Sherald, Ward Systems Group, Inc.

AIQ: OCTOBER 2020

The AIQ code for this month is based on Sylvain Vervoorts article in the September 2020 issue of STOCKS COMMODITIES, “Exploring Charting Techniques: Creating A Trading Strategy, Part 3.”

The code and EDS file can be downloaded from TradersEdgeSystems/traderstips. htm. and is also shown below.

I was not able to code the renko-based charts, so the two moving averages, the simple average of the typical price (typSMA), and the simple average of the heikin-ashi close (haSMA) are based on the closing values from a conventional chart, not the renko chart.

In Figure 7, I show a chart of Netflix (NFLX) with the typSMA and haSMA averages. The chart also shows a trade that was opened on 1/4/2020 and closed on 2/27/2020 for a 90% profit.

FIGURE 7: AIQ. Here is a sample chart of Netflix (NFLX) with the typSMA and haSMA averages plus a sample trade marked with white up and down arrows.

for AIQ Systems

TRADERSSTUDIO: OCTOBER 2020

The TradersStudio code I am providing for Sylvain Vervoorts September 2020 article in SC, “Exploring Charting Techniques: Creating A Trading Strategy, Part 3,” can be found at the following two websites:

The following code files are provided in the download:

Function HA_SMA: Returns the heikin-ashi simple moving average of the close based on the “haLen” input

Function TYP_SMA: Returns the typical-price simple moving average of the close based on the typLen input

Indicator plot TYP_HA_SMA: For plotting the two moving averages just described on a chart

System SVE_TYP_HA_SMA_SYS: The system code for trading crossovers on the two moving averages.

I was not able to code the renko-based charts, so the two moving averages, the simple average of the typical price (typSMA), and the simple average of the heikin-ashi close (haSMA) are based on the closing values from a conventional chart, not the renko chart.

In Figure 8, I show a chart of the SP 500 full-size futures contract (SP) using data from Pinnacle Data Corp. (pinnacledata ) with the typSMA and haSMA averages. In addition, this chart shows a sample trade that was opened on 10/14/2020 and closed on 11/11/2020 for a $19,875 profit before commission slippage.

FIGURE 8: TRADERSSTUDIO. Here is an example crossover of the typSMA and haSMA averages on a chart of the SP 500 full-size futures contract (SP). The trade shown here, which was opened on 10/14/2020 and closed on 11/11/2020, would have produced a profit of $19,875 before commission slippage.

NINJATRADER: OCTOBER 2020

The SveRenkoCross strategy, as introduced by Sylvain Vervoort in the September 2020 STOCKS COMMODITIES article “Exploring Charting Techniques: Creating A Trading Strategy, Part 3,” has been made available for download at ninjatrader/SC/October2020SC. zip .

Once you have it downloaded, from within the NinjaTrader Control Center window, select the menu File → Utilities → Import NinjaScript and select the downloaded file. This file is for NinjaTrader version 7 or greater.

You can review the strategy source code by selecting the menu Tools → Edit NinjaScript → Strategy from within the NinjaTrader Control Center window and selecting the “SveRenkoCross” file. A sample chart implementing the strategy is shown in Figure 9.

FIGURE 9: NINJATRADER. This screenshot shows the strategy applied to a 100-tick SveRenko SP 500 chart in NinjaTrader.

—Raymond Deux Cal Hueber

UPDATA: OCTOBER 2020

Our Traders Tip this month is one that was developed in-house by our Updata team and is for a trading system we named the small-range bars system .

This system is a daily breakout system that identifies when the previous days absolute daily range (high to low) and normalized by the close is at least half a standard deviation below its cumulative period average. The system anticipates the next day will be of larger range. On that day, signals are generated upon breaking of the previous days high or low. All positions are flattened at the close.

The Updata code for this system is in the Updata Library and may be downloaded by clicking the custom menu and indicator library . Those who cannot access the library due to a firewall may paste the code shown below into the Updata custom editor and save it.

FIGURE 10: UPDATA, SMALL-RANGE BARS SYSTEM. This chart shows an example of our small-range bars system as applied to NYMEX-listed WTI crude oil prices.

—Updata support team

MICROSOFT EXCEL: OCTOBER 2020

In “Exploring Charting Techniques: Creating A Trading Strategy, Part 3” by Sylvain Vervoort, which appeared in the September 2020 issue of STOCKS COMMODITIES, the author develops a simple trading strategy around the crossover of two moving averages constructed over the modified renko brick chart that he showed us earlier in his July 2020 SC article of the same series (part 1).

I played around with the renko tick size (700), which translates to a brick size of $700. With the SP 500 as the datastream (which is a big ticket compared to Ford at $17 a share), this allowed more dates on the renko chart for demonstration purposes. Adjust as you like for your trading instrument.

I also made one small change to his signal strategy. Rather than use a set 0.8 signal threshold, my spreadsheet calculates the maximum absolute delta between the moving averages and then takes a user-specified percentage of that delta as the threshold value. This allows the strategy to adapt to tradable instruments with large differences in pricing scales.

This strategy seems to work equally well with tick-level data or end-of-day data.

Unless we get a sharp signal crossover (as we see near 12/18/2020 in Figure 11), the delta between the two moving averages can be less than our signal threshold for one or more bars, and we get white space.

FIGURE 11: EXCEL, CROSSOVER ON RENKO CHART. This shows a renko chart with the position durations per indicator. The crossover spread exceeds the signal threshold.

The chart in Figure 11 has a fixed number of bars to avoid some clutter. The right-most bar is for the same date as the right-most bar on the price chart in Figure 12. Because of the nature of the renko bar construct, the number of renko bars for a given time span will almost never be the same as the number of source data bars for the same time span.

To help get the charts to cover the same time span for the sake of visual comparison, the button to the right of the renko chart will reset the price chart of Figure 12 to the time span shown in the renko chart.

FIGURE 12: EXCEL. Heres a sample price chart for comparison to the renko chart in Figure 11.

Figure 13 details the backtest transactions that were summarized in the blue box at the bottom left of the chart in Figure 12.

FIGURE 13: EXCEL, BACKTEST RESULTS. This shows the log of backtest transactions.

The spreadsheet file can be downloaded here: CreatingATradingStrategy. xlsm. To successfully download it, follow these steps:

Excel and VBA programmer

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Binary Options Theory and Practice
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